California Joins New York and More US States in Witnessing Canadian Snowbird and Leisure Travel Drop in 2026

California is joining New York, Florida, North Dakota, Michigan, Alaska, Nevada and other US states in confronting the effects of weaker Canadian snowbird and leisure travel in 2026, as America’s largest international source market continues to show signs of changing where and how it spends its holiday money.

The downturn has developed into more than a short-term tourism problem. Canadian residents made around 29.1 million trips to the United States in 2025, compared with approximately 39 million in 2024, representing a reduction of nearly 9.9 million trips, or roughly 25%.

Canadian spending in the United States also fell by around $2.3 billion, while Canadian spending on overseas travel increased by approximately $2.5 billion. This suggests an important shift for US tourism: many Canadians did not simply stop travelling but redirected part of their travel spending elsewhere.

The impact is now being felt differently across individual states. California is trying to recover from a 20.1% Canadian visitor decline in 2025, Florida lost around 270,000 Canadian visitors in the first half of 2026, while northern border destinations are dealing with weaker shopping, road-trip and short-break demand.

California: Canadian Tourism Remains Fragile After 20.1% Drop

California entered 2026 with a substantial Canadian tourism gap to recover. Visit California reported that Canadian visitation declined approximately 20.1% in 2025, leaving the state with around 1.4 million Canadian visitors. Its baseline outlook projected a modest 2.6% rebound in 2026, but a downside scenario suggested another 6.1% decline was possible if economic and geopolitical pressures continued. Current air-arrival numbers remain soft. Approximately 69,522 Canadians arrived by air through California ports of entry in July 2026, around 2.3% fewer than a year earlier. The numbers show improvement from the scale of the 2025 collapse remains far from guaranteed.

California Data Snapshot

California’s exposure goes well beyond traditional holidays. Canadians travel to Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Palm Springs and other destinations for beaches, entertainment, winter sunshine, business, shopping and family visits. A sustained decline can therefore affect hotels, attractions, restaurants, retail and aviation simultaneously.

New York: Canadian Retreat Hits Shopping, Hotels and Border Tourism

New York faces the Canadian travel downturn from two directions. Buffalo, Niagara Falls and other communities close to Ontario depend heavily on Canadians making shopping trips, weekend breaks and short cross-border visits. New York City depends on another valuable segment: Canadians arriving for hotels, entertainment, business, restaurants and shopping. Industry reports have indicated a statewide Canadian visitor decline exceeding approximately 26% during the broader downturn, while New York City hotel industry reports have pointed to Canadian bookings falling by as much as 40% during particularly weak periods. Some border areas have also experienced retail declines of around 20%, increasing pressure on businesses accustomed to frequent Ontario customers.

New York Data Snapshot

The significance for New York is frequency. A Canadian resident living near the border may traditionally make several trips annually. Losing those repeat visits can remove spending from restaurants, shops, hotels, attractions and entertainment businesses throughout the year.

Florida: Around 270,000 Canadian Visitors Lost in Six Months

Florida provides some of the clearest evidence that the Canadian weakness has continued into 2026. Around 1.68 million Canadians visited Florida during the first half of the year, approximately 270,000 fewer than during the corresponding period of 2025. That represents a decline of about 13.9%. Florida received approximately 73.5 million visitors overall during the first six months, down around 1.4%. Canadian visitation also remained approximately 610,000 below the equivalent pre-pandemic 2019 level. This is particularly important because Canadians traditionally support Florida not simply through short holidays but through longer winter stays.

Florida Data Snapshot

Florida’s snowbird economy magnifies the effect. A visitor staying several weeks can spend repeatedly on accommodation, restaurants, supermarkets, golf, transport, entertainment and other services. The loss of one long-stay Canadian can therefore have considerably more economic weight than the loss of a single day visitor.

South Carolina: Myrtle Beach Watches Its Canadian Winter Market

South Carolina’s Canadian exposure is particularly visible around Myrtle Beach and the Grand Strand. Canadian travellers have traditionally driven south for warmer winter weather, beaches, golf and extended stays. Reports have circulated suggesting Canadian traffic in Myrtle Beach has declined by as much as 65.4% during parts of the wider downturn. That figure should be treated as a local or period-specific indicator rather than an official statewide decline unless supported by a clearly defined primary dataset. Nevertheless, the national loss of approximately 9.9 million Canadian US trips between 2024 and 2025 illustrates the size of the market contraction facing destinations dependent on Canadian road travellers.

South Carolina Data Snapshot

The 65.4% figure should be treated as a reported local indicator rather than a statewide tourism decline.

North Dakota: Canadian Border Crossings Fall 23.9%

North Dakota offers stronger state-level evidence. Canadian border crossings declined approximately 23.9% in 2025, contributing to pressure on the state’s visitor economy. North Dakota welcomed around 25.6 million visitors during the year, down approximately 2.6%, while visitor spending declined 1.2% to roughly $3.4 billion. Domestic travellers still represented 88.4% of visitation, but the Canadian pullback matters disproportionately to communities near the international border. These areas benefit from repeat Canadian spending on accommodation, fuel, restaurants, retail and entertainment, meaning fewer crossings can quickly become a local business problem.

North Dakota Data Snapshot

North Dakota has reported early indications of improving tourism momentum in 2026, making it important not to describe every current indicator as continuing to decline. However, recovering lost Canadian cross-border demand remains important.

Michigan: Ontario Travel Weakness Threatens Repeat Cross-Border Spending

Michigan’s relationship with Canadian tourism is shaped heavily by Ontario. Detroit and Port Huron sit along major international travel corridors, while Canadian travellers cross for sporting events, shopping, restaurants, entertainment and short holidays. There is not yet a sufficiently robust statewide 2026 Canadian visitor percentage comparable with Florida’s 13.9% decline. The national trend nevertheless creates significant exposure. Canadian US trips fell from approximately 39 million in 2024 to 29.1 million in 2025. That removed roughly 9.9 million trips from the overall market, and border states such as Michigan are particularly sensitive because many Canadian journeys are discretionary and relatively easy to cancel.

Michigan Data Snapshot

Michigan illustrates why the Canadian tourism downturn cannot be measured only through hotel occupancy. A reduction in short cross-border trips can simultaneously affect shops, restaurants, sports venues and entertainment businesses.

Vermont: 47% Spending Collapse Followed by Signs of Recovery

Vermont suffered one of the sharpest measurable Canadian spending shocks. Canadian credit-card spending in the state fell approximately 47% in 2025, while the number of Canadian cards being used dropped around 46%. Canadian resident return trips declined approximately 31%. The 2026 picture is now improving. Canadian card spending was around 5% higher year to date through June, including a 26% year-on-year increase during June. Passenger crossings reached approximately 1.6 million through July, up 6.6%, while Canadian return trips increased 12.8% during July itself. Vermont therefore shows both how severe the Canadian pullback became and how quickly some demand can begin returning.

Vermont Data Snapshot

Vermont is therefore a warning against treating the Canadian decline as uniform across 2026. Some destinations are already recovering from extraordinarily weak 2025 comparisons.

Alaska: Canadian Road Travel Weakness Creates an Unusual Tourism Risk

Alaska faces a distinctive Canadian tourism problem because geography connects the state closely to Canada. Road travellers moving between Alaska and the contiguous United States must travel through Canadian territory, while Canadian visitors themselves support hotels, restaurants, petrol stations and tourism operators along northern routes. Reports have cited declines of around 33.9% in Canadian land arrivals during periods of the broader downturn, although this should not be presented as a blanket statewide 2026 tourism decline without defining the specific period and border dataset. What is clear is that any sustained fall in Canadian road travel can disproportionately affect smaller highway-based tourism communities.

Alaska Data Snapshot

The 33.9% figure should be treated as a reported period-specific land-arrival indicator rather than a statewide annual decline.

Nevada: Las Vegas Turns to Discounts as Visitor Market Weakens

Nevada’s challenge centres overwhelmingly on Las Vegas. The destination welcomed approximately 35.46 million visitors between January and November 2025, compared with roughly 38.27 million during the equivalent period a year earlier. That represents approximately 2.81 million fewer total visitors and a decline of around 7.4%. November alone was down approximately 5.2%. Those are overall visitor figures and cannot be attributed entirely to Canadians. However, Canadian weakness has become important enough for some Las Vegas businesses to offer targeted promotions, including Canadian-dollar-at-par deals designed to offset the disadvantage created by currency conversion.

Nevada and Las Vegas Data Snapshot

For Las Vegas, Canadians matter beyond hotel rooms. Visitors spend across casinos, restaurants, concerts, entertainment, retail and transport, multiplying the value of every recovered traveller.

Washington: British Columbia Pullback Hits Border Businesses First

Washington’s proximity to British Columbia makes it another important test of Canadian travel sentiment. Canadians regularly cross into Washington for shopping, flights, restaurants, sporting events, fuel and short holidays. Reports from some duty-free and border-dependent businesses during the downturn have described revenue losses exceeding 80%. Those figures should not be confused with an 80% decline in Washington’s overall tourism economy; they demonstrate how concentrated the damage can become for businesses immediately dependent on border traffic. With nearly 9.9 million Canadian US trips disappearing nationally between 2024 and 2025, Washington’s border communities remain highly exposed to any prolonged reluctance to travel south.

Washington Data Snapshot

The reported 80% figure relates to some individual border-oriented businesses, not Washington’s statewide tourism industry.

Canadian Travel Pressure Across US States

The table also highlights an important distinction. Not every number measures the same thing. Some measure Canadian visitors, others border crossings, credit-card spending, hotel bookings or overall destination visitation. They demonstrate different dimensions of the same tourism challenge and should not be directly compared as identical statewide decline rates.

Nearly 9.9 Million Canadian US Trips Disappear

The national numbers explain why individual states are paying so much attention.

Canadian residents made approximately 39 million trips to the United States in 2024. That fell to around 29.1 million in 2025.

The difference is approximately 9.9 million trips in one year.

Spread across a full year, that is equivalent to roughly 27,000 fewer Canadian trips to the United States every day.

Canadian visitor spending in the country declined by approximately $2.3 billion. At the same time, Canadian spending on overseas travel increased by around $2.5 billion.

This is one of the most important economic signals in the story. Canadians have not simply stopped taking holidays. Part of their travel demand and spending appears to have moved towards alternative destinations.

Snowbirds Make the Economic Impact Bigger

The loss becomes particularly important in California, Florida, Texas, Nevada and other warm-weather states because snowbirds behave differently from ordinary tourists.

A weekend traveller might book two hotel nights and several meals. A snowbird can remain for weeks or months, paying for accommodation, groceries, restaurants, golf, fuel, entertainment, shopping and local services throughout the stay.

This makes the coming winter season an important test.

If Canadian travellers continue choosing Mexico, the Caribbean, domestic Canadian destinations or other alternatives, the financial impact could extend well beyond conventional tourism businesses.

Long-stay accommodation providers, RV parks, supermarkets and local service businesses can also feel the effect.

Border States Face a Different Canadian Tourism Problem

New York, Michigan, Vermont, North Dakota and Washington face another form of exposure.

Their Canadian market depends heavily on repeat short-distance travel.

A resident of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba or British Columbia living near the border may traditionally cross several times each year rather than taking one major US holiday.

These travellers shop, dine, attend sporting events, use airports and stay overnight.

When political sentiment, currency pressure or border concerns discourage those journeys, a series of relatively small individual decisions can become a substantial collective economic loss.

Vermont’s 47% fall in Canadian card spending during 2025 demonstrates just how quickly that behaviour can affect local businesses.

US Destinations Are Fighting to Win Canadians Back

American destinations are not simply watching the numbers fall.

Tourism authorities and hospitality businesses have begun targeting Canadians with promotions and incentives. New York has promoted Canadian-focused travel offers, while Las Vegas businesses have experimented with Canadian-dollar-at-par pricing.

These campaigns recognise an uncomfortable reality for US tourism.

Canada has historically supplied more international travellers to the United States than any other country. Losing even a modest percentage of that enormous market can translate into millions of missing trips.

California joins New York and more in witnessing Canadian snowbird and leisure travel drop in 2026 as fewer Canadian visitors travel to the US due to changing travel patterns, economic factors and shifting demand across major American destinations.

In conclusion, California joins New York and more in witnessing Canadian snowbird and leisure travel drop in 2026 as changing travel preferences, economic considerations and shifting visitor behaviour continue to influence Canadian trips to major US destinations. The decline highlights a broader adjustment in the Canada-US travel relationship, affecting traditional snowbird destinations alongside popular leisure markets. While California, New York and more states remain important attractions for Canadian travellers, the changing patterns underline the need for destinations and tourism businesses to understand evolving demand, strengthen visitor value and adapt strategies to maintain long-term international tourism connections.