Qatar Joins Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain as Regional Conflict Impacts Gulf Tourism While Strong Cooperation Supports Rapid Recovery

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Qatar Joins Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain as regional conflicts impact Gulf tourism, while strong cooperation supports rapid recovery and is expected

The Gulf tourism industry has been significantly affected by the ongoing regional conflict, with over 5,000 flights cancelled within the first 48 hours of the crisis, disrupting one of the world’s fastest-growing travel corridors. However, despite these short-term disruptions, analysts predict that the region’s tourism sector will recover swiftly once the conflict subsides.

The cancellation of flights and the closure of large parts of regional airspace have weakened traveller confidence, leading to reduced projections for inbound arrivals. Oxford Economics and Tourism Economics estimate that the Gulf’s inbound arrivals could decline by 11% to 27% in 2026, compared with previous projections of 13% growth. This would equate to a loss of 23 million to 38 million international visitors, and a decline of between $34 billion and $56 billion in visitor spending across the region.

Despite these challenges, the Gulf tourism markets are entering the crisis from a position of strength, as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and other major destinations have built a strong foundation of demand, infrastructure, and financial stability.

Dubai Tourism: A Strong Foundation Despite Setbacks

In 2025, Dubai saw a significant influx of international visitors, welcoming 19.59 million international overnight visitors, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase. The city’s hotel occupancy rate remained consistently above 80%, even across more than 154,000 hotel rooms. This strong performance underscores the resilient demand for travel to Dubai, particularly in the wake of the disruptions caused by the ongoing crisis.

Dubai’s role as a global business and leisure destination continues to be a driving force, even amid the geopolitical instability in the region. Its attractions—ranging from iconic skyscrapers like the Burj Khalifa to world-renowned shopping malls, cultural festivals, and luxurious resorts—ensure it remains an attractive choice for tourists worldwide.

Impact of the Conflict on Regional Travel

The disruption to regional air travel has had ripple effects on other major tourism destinations in the Gulf, including Abu Dhabi, Doha, Muscat, and Manama. As air travel routes were restricted or cancelled, the local tourism industries experienced a decline in both business travel and leisure tourism.

Airlines operating in the region have been forced to adjust their schedules, focusing on key domestic and regional routes while limiting international connections due to airspace restrictions. This, in turn, has had a significant impact on tourist arrivals, particularly those coming to the Gulf for conferences, events, or leisure activities.

Despite this, local businesses, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors, continue to adapt to the disruptions by offering flexible travel options and accommodations for guests whose plans have been affected. Many travelers have been offered rebooking options and refunds, with tourism boards and companies working closely to manage the evolving situation.

Tourism Recovery: Short-Term Losses, Long-Term Gains

Tourism experts remain optimistic about the Gulf’s ability to recover once the conflict eases. Historically, the region has shown strong resilience in bouncing back from challenges. For example, following the 2008 financial crisis, the Arab Spring, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the region saw rapid recoveries in tourism. Gloria Guevara, President of the World Travel & Tourism Council, emphasized that past crises have proven that tourism can recover quickly when governments and industry players act to restore confidence and stability.

In Dubai, for example, major international events like the Expo 2020 played a key role in reviving tourism, and similar events are expected to drive future recovery. The World Expo had a major economic impact, bringing in millions of visitors and contributing to the region’s long-term tourism growth.

S&P Global also reaffirmed the credit strength of the UAE, citing the country’s strong reserves and policy flexibility as key factors that will buffer the region against short-term tourism setbacks. These indicators suggest that, despite the current turbulence, the Gulf’s tourism industry is set to regain momentum.

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond: The Gulf’s Tourism Resilience

While the 2026 forecasts for tourism arrivals are lower than initially expected, the region’s recovery is predicted to be rapid. Tourism Economics estimates that tourism arrivals will return to pre-crisis levels once geopolitical tensions ease. The decline in arrivals could range from 11% if the situation stabilizes within one to three weeks, to 27% if the conflict lasts for several months.

Looking ahead, GCC tourism is forecasted to grow at 5.2% in 2027, with UAE GDP growth projected at 6.8% in the same year. This reflects an expected return to positive momentum, driven by increasing demand for leisure travel, business tourism, and regional tourism.

What Travelers Can Expect in the Short Term

For travelers planning to visit the Gulf region, it’s important to monitor flight statuses and check for cancellations regularly. Many airlines are offering flexible rebooking options to accommodate those affected by disruptions. For tourists in the region, checking the availability of hotel rooms, events, and attractions before traveling is advisable, as some locations may experience fluctuations in operating hours or availability.

Conclusion: The Gulf’s Tourism Sector Remains Resilient

Despite the short-term disruptions caused by regional conflict and flight cancellations, the Gulf’s tourism sector retains the necessary infrastructure and financial strength to recover swiftly. With strong bookings in key cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and the continued appeal of the Middle East as a business and leisure destination, the region is expected to rebound in the coming months.

For tourists, the Gulf remains a vibrant and evolving destination, with ample opportunities for exploration, from luxury resorts and cultural experiences to world-class shopping and business conferences. With flexible booking options and tourism initiatives, travelers can still enjoy all the region has to offer, even as the tourism industry adapts to current challenges.