Pacific Asia Travel Association Tourism Outlook Reveals Strong Recovery Across Asia Pacific as Most Destinations Prepare to Exceed 2019 Visitor Numbers

Written By: Binoy Mehera

Binoy Mehera

A curious mind driven by a passion for storytelling, I find inspiration in uncovering hidden perspectives, exploring diverse experiences, and shaping ideas into narratives that leave an impact. With three years of experience in journalism and content creation, I have developed a strong instinct for identifying meaningful stories, blending research with creativity, and presenting information in a way that connects with readers. My storytelling journey is guided by a fascination for culture, travel, lifestyle, and the human experiences that define our world. I aim to create narratives that not only inform but also spark curiosity, evoke emotions, and offer audiences a deeper understanding of every story.

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June 30, 2026 11:01 PM

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Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released a new tourism outlook forecasting sustained growth across the Asia Pacific region, with international visitor arrivals expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels over the next three years. Covering 39 destinations, the latest forecast projects that most markets will exceed their 2019 visitor numbers by 2028, driven by stronger regional travel demand, expanding air connectivity, improved infrastructure, and easing travel policies. The outlook also highlights the destinations and source markets expected to shape the region’s tourism landscape as Asia Pacific enters a new phase of long-term growth.

International visitor arrivals across Asia Pacific are forecast to reach 714.9 million in 2026, rising further to 758.8 million in 2027 and 789.2 million in 2028. By the end of the forecast period, total arrivals are expected to exceed 2019 pre-pandemic levels by 15.6%, marking a structural shift in regional tourism performance rather than a cyclical rebound.

Broad-based recovery continues across the region

The outlook shows that tourism recovery in Asia Pacific is steadily widening across destinations, although progress remains uneven. By 2027, around 27 of the 39 destinations tracked are expected to surpass their 2019 international arrival figures. By 2028, that number is projected to increase to 30 destinations, indicating that most markets will have fully recovered and moved into growth territory.

This expansion is being driven by stronger intra-regional travel, improved flight connectivity, and gradual easing of entry requirements in several markets. At the same time, differences in market structure, dependence on key source countries, and aviation capacity continue to shape uneven recovery patterns.

Overall, the region is shifting from a recovery-led environment to one increasingly defined by sustained demand growth and network expansion.

Fastest-growing destinations show strong momentum

Several destinations are expected to outperform regional averages over the forecast period. Vietnam leads growth among major markets, with international arrivals projected to rise by more than 30% between 2025 and 2027, reaching roughly 27.8 million visitors. Growth is being supported by expanding air links, competitive travel costs, and rising regional demand.

Macao is also positioned for strong gains, supported by the rebound of leisure tourism and entertainment-driven travel flows. Japan continues to experience a robust resurgence in inbound arrivals, benefiting from renewed regional travel demand and strong long-haul interest in cultural and seasonal tourism.

Hong Kong SAR, Türkiye, and Malaysia are also expected to record healthy growth, driven by improving connectivity, targeted tourism promotion, and steady recovery across both leisure and business segments.

Thailand is forecast to gradually return to its 2019 international arrival levels by 2028, reflecting steady but measured recovery momentum. The United States is also expected to see moderate growth in inbound travel from Asia Pacific, supported by improved long-haul connectivity and stabilising travel conditions.

China remains the region’s anchor destination

China is expected to retain its position as the largest inbound tourism destination in Asia Pacific throughout the forecast period. International arrivals are projected to reach approximately 157.8 million in 2027, reinforcing its scale advantage within the regional tourism landscape.

However, growth is expected to remain relatively modest at around 2.2% compared with 2025, reflecting the maturity of the market. Despite slower percentage expansion, China continues to play a central role in shaping regional travel flows due to its sheer volume and influence on aviation networks.

Recovery gaps remain across select markets

While many destinations are moving ahead strongly, others are expected to recover more gradually. Mongolia stands out as the strongest rebound market, projected to reach nearly 178% of its 2019 visitor levels by 2028, driven by growing interest in nature-based and experiential travel.

Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka are also expected to exceed pre-pandemic benchmarks by a comfortable margin, supported by strong destination appeal and improving international access.

In contrast, several destinations—including the United States, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar, and parts of the Pacific—are expected to remain below 2019 levels beyond the forecast period. These slower recoveries are largely linked to structural factors such as distance from key source markets, limited air capacity, and uneven demand recovery.

Outbound travel led by China and the United States

On the outbound side, China continues to dominate regional travel demand, with outbound trips projected to approach 127 million in 2027. This reinforces its position as the most influential source market in Asia Pacific tourism.

The United States remains the second-largest outbound market, expected to generate approximately 65.2 million outbound travellers over the same period. Both markets are forecast to grow by around 18% compared with 2025, underlining their continued importance in global tourism flows.

South Korea, Canada, and Mexico also remain notable outbound contributors, supporting both regional and long-haul travel demand across multiple Asia Pacific destinations.

Key drivers supporting continued expansion

The forecast highlights several structural forces underpinning long-term tourism growth in the region. Expanding airline networks, new route development, and upgraded airport infrastructure are improving connectivity between major hubs and secondary cities.

At the same time, visa facilitation initiatives in multiple destinations are reducing barriers to travel and encouraging higher visitor volumes. Strong intra-regional demand continues to be a major driver, particularly for short-haul travel within Asia, where affordability and convenience remain key factors.

Digital transformation across the travel sector is also playing a growing role, with improved booking systems, personalised travel experiences, and more efficient distribution channels helping stimulate demand and streamline planning.

Risks that could influence the outlook

Despite the positive trajectory, several risks could affect the pace of growth across Asia Pacific. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key concern, with potential implications for air routes, travel sentiment, and cross-border mobility.

Economic pressures such as inflation, rising fuel costs, and higher airline operating expenses may also impact both travel supply and demand. In addition, cost-of-living pressures in major source markets could reduce discretionary spending on international travel, particularly for long-haul trips.

Operational challenges, including labour shortages and capacity constraints in aviation and hospitality, may further influence recovery speed in select destinations.

A region moving into a sustained growth cycle

Overall, the Asia Pacific tourism outlook suggests a shift toward a more stable and sustained growth cycle. While recovery remains uneven across destinations, the broader regional trend points to strengthening demand fundamentals and improving connectivity.

By 2028, Asia Pacific is expected to have not only surpassed pre-pandemic tourism levels but also established a higher structural baseline for international arrivals. The region’s tourism landscape is increasingly defined by expansion, diversification, and long-term demand growth rather than post-crisis recovery alone.