Canada, Europe, and Mexico Among Countries Impacted as US Faces Tourism Decline – Will the FIFA World Cup 2026 Revive the Trend?

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In recent years, US tourism has been in a downward spiral, primarily attributed to stringent immigration policies and heightened scrutiny at the borders. This trend, often referred to as the “Trump slump,” has seen a significant dip in international visitors, including from key markets like Canada, Britain, and Europe. In 2025, while global tourism grew by an average of 4%, the US experienced a troubling 5.4% decline in foreign visitors, a blow to the country’s tourism and hospitality sectors. The looming question now is whether the FIFA World Cup 2026, expected to attract millions of football fans to the US, will be the spark needed to revive the struggling tourism industry. However, with new travel restrictions and policy shifts still on the horizon, the potential for a full recovery remains uncertain. This article explores the causes behind the US tourism decline, how the World Cup could boost visitor numbers, and the barriers still in place that may dampen the excitement.

The Impact of the “Trump Slump” on US Tourism
The decline in US tourism since the 2016 presidential election has been attributed to several factors, most notably the country’s shifting stance on immigration. This decline, now known as the “Trump slump,” has had a widespread effect on foreign visitors, deterring those from countries like Canada, Europe, and even key Asian markets. In particular, Canadian tourism to the US has been severely affected, with a reported drop of 28% in early 2025. Other countries, such as France and Germany, saw moderate declines in arrivals. The decline in US tourism can be linked to several factors, including unpredictable foreign policy proposals, heightened border security, and stricter vetting processes, which have created barriers for international travelers. Moreover, social unrest, including high-profile incidents involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has contributed to growing concerns among potential visitors.

Stricter Immigration Policies and the Impact on International Visitors
One of the major deterrents for international travelers to the US has been its tough stance on immigration, particularly under the Trump administration. The introduction of policies such as the travel ban on several nations, including those with World Cup qualifiers like Iran, Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Haiti, has made the US a less accessible destination for many. These actions have been compounded by new visa fees, including the controversial $250 “visa integrity fee”, which was levied on non-immigrant tourist and business visas. Meanwhile, travelers from countries in Europe and Canada have found themselves subjected to additional scrutiny at US borders, including invasive checks and the controversial practice of searching electronic devices, which has only added to the overall deterrent. The US government’s shifting stance on LGBTQ+ rights has also compounded issues, with the Trump administration’s rollback of protections for LGBTQ+ citizens and visitors contributing to an uncomfortable and unwelcoming atmosphere for many international travelers. These changes have raised concerns for those from these communities who might otherwise visit the US.

Could the FIFA World Cup 2026 Revive US Tourism?
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, hopes have been high that it would serve as a catalyst for rejuvenating the US tourism sector. With matches scheduled across the US, Mexico, and Canada, the event is expected to attract millions of visitors from around the world, particularly from football-enthusiast countries. In November 2025, Tourism Economics published a report forecasting that the World Cup could inject a significant amount of energy into the US tourism market. The report projected that approximately 1.24 million international visitors would come to the US for the event, with 742,000 (about 60%) of them being incremental, or trips that wouldn’t have occurred otherwise. This influx of visitors is expected to generate substantial economic activity, particularly in the hospitality and tourism sectors, filling hotel rooms and bringing people into local businesses. As Tourism Economics noted, nearly one-third of the projected tourism growth in 2026 could be directly attributed to the World Cup.

Challenges in Regaining the Trust of International Travelers
Despite these optimistic projections, the road to a tourism rebound may not be as smooth as anticipated. In the first months of 2026, there have already been signs of disappointment. While US tourism saw a marginal 0.8% increase in February 2026, the increase followed a much larger 4.2% drop in January, highlighting the ongoing struggles. More concerning is the dramatic drop in flight bookings from Europe to the US for the summer of 2026, with a reported 14% decrease year-over-year, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. Travel professionals and analysts have pointed out that the US’s reputation for unpredictable policies and complex immigration procedures has made it a less attractive destination for many international travelers, including those planning to attend the World Cup. The fear that new regulations, including a proposed policy from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) requiring travelers to disclose their social media history from the past five years, could further complicate and discourage travel to the US.

The FIFA World Cup’s Mixed Impact on Hotel and Accommodation Demand
As the World Cup draws closer, US hotels are already feeling the effects of diminished demand. Despite the early reservations made by FIFA for hotel room blocks two years ago, many hospitality groups are reporting underwhelming interest from international fans. The lackluster response to room block holds has left hotels in host cities anxious about achieving the projected occupancy rates. Jan Freitag, a leading industry expert, suggested that while the World Cup will undoubtedly generate an uptick in tourism, it is unlikely to match the massive boost initially hoped for. He emphasized that the US tourism industry may experience growth, but it will fall short of expectations, given the persisting policy and border-related challenges. As hotels brace for these mixed results, the key question remains whether the US tourism sector can recover enough to offset the negative impact of ongoing immigration and travel policy barriers.

The Road Ahead for US Tourism: A Bleak Yet Hopeful Outlook
While the FIFA World Cup 2026 holds potential to provide a temporary boost to US tourism, it is clear that the country’s travel industry is facing significant headwinds. Despite some positive projections for international arrivals tied to the World Cup, ongoing concerns about border security, immigration policies, and the growing visa costs are likely to keep many potential travelers from visiting the US. Even with the event on the horizon, it is uncertain whether it will be enough to reverse the overall decline in international arrivals seen in recent years. The US tourism industry will have to navigate these challenges while adjusting to a global landscape that is becoming increasingly complex and scrutinized. The success of FIFA World Cup 2026 may offer a glimpse of recovery, but whether it is enough to spark a full rebound remains to be seen.

In conclusion, while the FIFA World Cup offers a glimmer of hope for US tourism and a possible boost to the hospitality sector, it is unlikely to single-handedly overcome the many barriers that have deterred international visitors in recent years. The Trump-era policies, coupled with recent immigration proposals and travel restrictions, continue to create an atmosphere of uncertainty and reluctance among foreign travelers. While the US tourism industry may experience some short-term gains from the World Cup, the long-term recovery will depend on broader reforms and a shift in perception regarding the accessibility and safety of visiting the US.