PATA forecasts: Robust growth in Asia Pacific visitor arrivals (2024-2026)

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Today, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) unveiled its Executive Summary report detailing the latest projections for international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across the Asia Pacific region. These forecasts anticipate robust annual growth in visitor numbers from 2024 through 2026.

The report suggests that 2024 will likely see a surpassing of pre-COVID IVA levels under the mild scenario, with the medium scenario following suit in 2025. However, the possibility of a severe scenario looms, potentially keeping arrival figures approximately 13 percentage points below the 2019 benchmark by the end of 2026. Nonetheless, the overall growth observed underscores the concerted efforts of destinations to attract international travelers, highlighting the crucial role of the visitor economy in national economic recovery.

“The latest PATA forecasts shed light on the swift recovery of the international arrivals numbers in and across the Asia Pacific region, showing signs of strong visitor growth each year between 2024 and 2026 under the mild and medium scenarios, such trends were somewhat driven by joint agreements on destination visa requirements.” PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid noted.

“We cannot, however, expect uniformity in growth from that and other source markets across all the destinations of Asia Pacific, as many will increase their inbound counts at their own pace and in their own time. Furthermore, we must recognise this as the time of fast-paced and constant changes. All of us must remain vigilant of sudden shifts within the industry and be prepared with viable strategies and appropriate coping mechanisms for future uncertainties.”

In terms of absolute numbers, IVAs for 2024 are forecasted to range from 750 million under the mild scenario, to 619 million under the medium scenario, and 477 million under the severe scenario.

While there’s anticipation of robust annual increases in International Visitor Arrivals (IVAs) throughout Asia Pacific from 2024 to 2026, notable variations are projected across the three destination regions and the 39 individual destinations covered in the report. These differences are also influenced by various scenarios considered.

For instance, the annual growth rate for IVAs in Asia is expected to follow this pattern: 34% in 2024 under the mild scenario, 29% under the medium scenario, and 11% under the severe scenario. Additionally, there’s a slight predicted decrease in annual IVA numbers leading up to 2026, reflecting a return to a more stable long-term growth rate.

Although the Americas and the Pacific regions are forecasted to experience less potent growth compared to Asia, they still exhibit significant growth rates and absolute volume increases, with minor fluctuations over the forecast period.

Despite differing scenario conditions, Asia is poised to maintain a dominant position in IVA numbers annually from 2024 to 2026, capturing over 70% of arrivals into and across Asia Pacific. Moreover, Asia is expected to be the primary supplier region of IVAs, supplying more than 58% of all IVAs into Asia Pacific in 2024 under each scenario, with the Americas and Europe following with shares of around 19% and 14%, respectively.

By the end of 2026, Asia is forecasted to account for over 61% of all foreign arrivals across Asia Pacific.

Mr. Hamid emphasized the critical nature of staffing and maintaining service excellence for destinations within the region amidst increasing competition for growing source markets in Asia Pacific.

The report offers a forecast summary of IVAs for Asia Pacific between 2024 and 2026 by destination region and sub-region, highlighting post-COVID era opportunities. Additionally, it presents key source market highlights within each Asia Pacific destination region over the forecast period.

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts Executive Summary 2024-2026 is now available and complimentary for all PATA members. Furthermore, PATA members have exclusive access to the on-demand video webinar titled “The Scientific Crystal Ball: Forecasting the Future Tourism Market,” featuring expert panelists from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), Euromonitor International, Mastercard, and Amadeus. This webinar offers valuable insights on travel trends, tourism recovery drivers, and the Asia Pacific international visitor numbers forecast from 2024 to 2026.

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