Uzbekistan Follows Kenya, Haiti and More as Middle East Conflict Fuels Energy, Food Inflation, El Niño and 9.5% Debt Interest Burden

Image Credit: Uzbekistan Tourism

Middle East tensions drive up fuel and food prices while El Niño and mounting debt costs put further pressure on struggling economies such as Uzbekistan, Kenya and Haiti. According to UNDP, the median developing nation now spends 9.5% of government revenue on interest payments, leaving less money to help families. Without continued support, rising living costs could push another 130 million people below the US$6.85-a-day poverty line.

Uzbekistan, Kenya, Haiti and other developing countries face growing economic risks as Middle East tensions drive up energy costs, food prices and borrowing pressures. A new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report, published on 11 October 2026, warns that millions of people could fall into poverty if governments can no longer protect families from rising costs. Powerful El Niño conditions add another threat to food supplies and household incomes.

UNDP Raises Alarm as Developing Countries Face Growing Poverty Risks

The UNDP report, No Time to Recover: Compounding Crises, Depleted Fiscal Buffers and What It Means for Developing Economies, paints a worrying picture of the global economy.

Developing countries face several problems at once. Fuel costs are rising. Food is becoming more expensive. Governments are paying more interest on their debts.

Uzbekistan, Kenya and Haiti illustrate the wider vulnerabilities facing developing economies, although UNDP does not rank these three countries as the worst affected.

The report warns that government support programmes are becoming harder to maintain. Without continued assistance, vulnerable households could face serious financial hardship.

Key UNDP Findings Reveal the Scale of the Economic Crisis

The latest figures show how energy prices, debt and climate pressures are affecting developing economies.

Source: UNDP’s October 2026 analysis. Poverty estimates represent scenarios without household protection, not confirmed increases. The poverty thresholds are alternative measures and must not be added together.

Middle East Conflict Sends Energy Prices Higher Across Global Markets

The Middle East conflict has created fresh problems for countries that depend on imported fuel.

Oil prices have climbed above US$100 per barrel for the second time since the conflict began. Higher energy costs affect transport, farming, manufacturing and everyday household spending.

Between June and September 2026, fuel price pressures widened across many countries, driven by the Middle East conflict.

UNDP’s analysis of 130 countries found average petrol price increases of 26% and diesel price increases of 38% since the conflict began.

Expensive diesel can raise the cost of transporting food. Higher petrol prices can make travel more expensive. These pressures eventually reach families.

Uzbekistan, Kenya and Haiti Highlight Different Economic Vulnerabilities

Uzbekistan, Kenya and Haiti face different economic circumstances, but each demonstrates why developing economies need protection against external shocks.

Uzbekistan faces potential risks from global energy costs, food prices and changing financial conditions. Higher international prices can affect household purchasing power.

Kenya faces concerns over food affordability, fuel costs and climate-related agricultural disruption. Unpredictable rainfall can place additional pressure on rural communities.

Haiti faces particularly serious challenges because of poverty, food insecurity and limited economic resilience.

However, the October UNDP report does not provide individual poverty forecasts for these countries. Their inclusion reflects broader economic vulnerabilities rather than an official ranking of crisis severity.

El Niño Threatens Harvests Across Africa, Asia and Latin America

The growing economic crisis is unfolding alongside an unusually powerful El Niño.

UNDP warns that the current climate event could become the strongest on record. It threatens farming, rainfall patterns and food production across several developing regions.

Farmers need predictable weather to grow crops. Too little rain can destroy harvests. Heavy rainfall can damage fields, roads and homes.

When harvests suffer, food supplies can fall and prices may rise.

Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and East Asia face particularly serious poverty risks. Latin America also faces climate-related agricultural concerns.

This combination of climate disruption and expensive food could place additional pressure on vulnerable families.

Debt Interest Payments Consume 9.5% of Government Revenue

One of the report’s most concerning findings involves public debt.

The median developing country now spends approximately 9.5% of government revenue on interest payments. This is the highest proportion recorded in 25 years.

It is also more than three times the share seen in high-income countries.

Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields have reached 5.3%, their highest level since 2002. Borrowing costs for weaker-credit countries are already around 9%.

High interest payments leave governments with less money for schools, hospitals, food assistance and infrastructure.

These figures represent developing-country benchmarks, not the individual debt burdens of Uzbekistan, Kenya or Haiti.

UNDP Warns 130 Million More People Could Fall Into Poverty

UNDP estimates that approximately 130 million additional people could fall below the US$6.85-a-day poverty threshold if governments fully passed rising food and energy costs to consumers.

At the US$3.65 daily threshold, the estimated increase reaches 121 million people.

At the extreme poverty threshold of US$2.15 per day, approximately 66 million additional people could be affected.

These figures describe different poverty thresholds within the same economic scenario.

They do not mean that these numbers of people have already entered poverty.

Government subsidies, price controls and tax relief have helped prevent some of these outcomes. However, maintaining such support is becoming increasingly expensive.

Governments Face Difficult Choices as Subsidy Costs Soar

Developing countries have used fuel subsidies, price caps and tax relief to protect households.

Yet these measures place heavy pressure on national budgets.

UNDP estimates that global fossil fuel subsidies could exceed US$1 trillion in 2026 at current energy prices.

Fully compensating households for higher food and energy costs would require approximately 1.1% of developing-country GDP.

Targeted support for households below the US$6.85 poverty threshold would cost around 0.3%.

This difference explains why UNDP recommends focused assistance instead of broad subsidies.

Such programmes could protect vulnerable families while reducing unnecessary government expenditure.

Global Leaders Face Urgent Financing Decisions in Bangkok

The warning comes ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, during 12–18 October 2026.

UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo has called for stronger international financial assistance.

He warns that governments face difficult decisions between protecting poor households and preserving national development programmes.

UNDP wants international lenders and development partners to provide faster access to affordable financing.

This support could help governments maintain essential services, protect families and respond to climate emergencies.

For Uzbekistan, Kenya, Haiti and other vulnerable economies, the wider message is clear: rising costs, debt pressures and climate disruption require sustained financial resilience.

A Growing Economic Threat Demands International Attention

The latest UNDP findings reveal how quickly several crises can combine to threaten economic progress.

Middle East turmoil is increasing energy costs. Food inflation is weakening household budgets. El Niño threatens agricultural production. Meanwhile, expensive debt is limiting government support.

The estimated 130 million additional people at risk under the US$6.85 poverty scenario underline the potential scale of the problem.

The coming months will test whether governments and international lenders can provide enough targeted assistance.

Poverty risks in the developing world are growing to alarming proportions as Middle East tensions drive up fuel and food prices, with El Niño weather patterns and rising debt costs adding to the challenges for cash-strapped countries like Uzbekistan, Kenya and Haiti. According to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the median developing country is now spending 9.5 percent of government revenues on debt servicing, leaving countries with less resources to directly tackle poverty. Unless assistance programs are maintained, the value of commodities continues to rise and more people will fall below the international poverty level of $6.85 per person per day.