Pacific Asia Travel Association Projects Historic Asia Pacific Tourism Surge Across 39 Destinations as Visitor Arrivals Set to Reach 714.9 Million in 2026 and Climb Toward 789 Million by 2028 in Landmark Growth Forecast

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The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), working jointly with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), has published its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028: Mid-Year Update, outlining key destinations and source markets set to shape the region’s next wave of tourism expansion.

According to the revised outlook, international visitor arrivals across 39 Asia Pacific destinations are expected to reach approximately 714.9 million in 2026, rising further to 758.8 million in 2027, and climbing to around 789.2 million by 2028. By the end of this forecast horizon, total arrivals are projected to stand at 115.6% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels, signalling that the region has not only fully recovered but has also transitioned into a sustained growth and expansion phase in global tourism.

“Change is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the new constant,” said PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid. “The destinations and organisations that thrive will be those that can adapt quickly, innovate continuously, and respond with agility to an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.

“The latest forecasts demonstrate the remarkable resilience of Asia Pacific tourism. While the region continues to grow and recover, success will increasingly depend on destinations’ ability to navigate geopolitical uncertainty, evolving traveller behaviour, connectivity challenges, and rising operational costs. This is precisely why timely, data-driven insights have become essential for strategic decision-making.”

A clear widening gap in performance across Asia Pacific destinations has been identified in the latest outlook, showing that while the wider region continues to expand, growth is becoming increasingly uneven between leading and lagging markets.

APAC Tourism Recovery Patterns and Expansion Trends

Among the top 10 destinations in Asia Pacific, Vietnam is projected to emerge as the fastest-growing market between 2025 and 2027. International visitor arrivals are expected to rise by 31.2%, reaching around 27.8 million, supported by strong demand momentum, improved air connectivity, and sustained tourism investment. Macao (China) follows with a projected 19.4% increase, while Japan is set for a 15.8% uplift. Hong Kong SAR is forecast to grow by 13.9%, Türkiye by 12.7%, and Malaysia by 11.6%, reflecting robust regional travel demand and continued infrastructure expansion across key hubs.

In contrast, several major destinations are transitioning into a slower, more mature growth phase. China, although remaining the dominant destination in the region with an estimated 157.8 million arrivals by 2027, is expected to see only 2.2% growth compared to 2025 levels. Thailand is projected to expand by 5.2%, while the United States is forecast to grow by 9.0%. These figures highlight intensifying competition within global tourism markets and a gradual stabilisation of post-recovery demand.

Long-Term Recovery Trajectory and Pre-Pandemic Benchmarks

Looking further ahead, Mongolia is expected to record the strongest rebound against pre-pandemic levels by 2028, reaching approximately 177.8% of its 2019 performance. Strong recovery trajectories are also projected for Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka, all of which are anticipated to surpass their pre-COVID tourism benchmarks significantly.

However, Thailand is expected to return to 2019 arrival levels only by 2028, indicating a slower normalization curve compared to regional peers. The United States, Chinese Taipei, the Philippines, Myanmar, and several Pacific island destinations are also forecast to remain below pre-pandemic levels throughout much of the projection period, signalling prolonged recovery phases in select markets.

Out of the 39 destinations analysed, approximately 27 are expected to exceed their 2019 arrival volumes by 2027, with this number rising further to around 30 destinations by 2028, indicating a broad but uneven recovery pattern across the region.

Outbound Market Dynamics Across Asia Pacific

The analysis also highlights evolving outbound travel flows, which remain critical for airlines, tourism boards, and aviation infrastructure planning. China is projected to retain its position as the largest outbound source market in Asia Pacific by 2027, generating nearly 127 million outbound trips across the region. The United States follows with an estimated 65.2 million outbound journeys. Both markets are expected to expand by roughly 18% compared to 2025 levels, reinforcing their long-term influence on global travel demand.

Other significant outbound markets include the Republic of Korea, Canada, and Mexico. While these countries are expected to contribute substantial traveller volumes, growth rates are projected to vary depending on economic conditions, currency stability, and airline capacity expansion.

Risks and Structural Opportunities Shaping Future Growth

Despite the broadly positive outlook, several structural risks could influence tourism performance across Asia Pacific. Escalating geopolitical tensions remain a key concern, alongside volatility in global energy markets, both of which could impact jet fuel prices, airline operating costs, and international connectivity. Persistent inflation in major source markets may also constrain discretionary travel spending, particularly among middle-income travellers and long-haul segments.

At the same time, multiple growth drivers are expected to sustain the sector’s expansion. These include rapid airline network growth, new airport infrastructure developments, improved visa facilitation policies, and strengthening intra-regional travel demand across Asia Pacific. Together, these factors are likely to support continued tourism recovery and long-term expansion, even as market performance diverges across individual destinations.

Professor Haiyan Song, Director, RCDTT, PolyU, said, “While the recovery trajectory remains positive, destinations must remain agile in responding to evolving market conditions. The forecasts provide an important evidence base for tourism organisations, governments, and industry stakeholders seeking to make informed strategic decisions in a rapidly changing environment.”

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028: Mid-Year Update delivers detailed annual and quarterly projections for 39 destinations across the Asia Pacific region. It also examines key outbound source markets, evolving destination performance patterns, and the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical forces influencing the trajectory of global tourism in the years ahead.