Jamaica Turns to Brazil, Colombia and More as US and Canadian Tourists Pull Back From Caribbean Travel

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Jamaica is turning to Brazil, Colombia and more as US and Canadian tourists pull back from Caribbean travel, forcing the island to chase fresh markets and rethink its tourism growth strategy.

Jamaica is turning to Brazil, Colombia and more as US and Canadian tourists pull back from Caribbean travel in 2026. Meanwhile, the Caribbean destination is finding fresh momentum across Latin America. Arrivals from Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Peru are gaining ground, helping Jamaica reduce its reliance on traditional markets.

However, the shift comes as US and Canadian tourist demand weakens. Therefore, Jamaica is pushing deeper into emerging markets and strengthening its international tourism strategy. The move could reshape the island’s visitor mix. More importantly, it shows how destinations can respond when established travel markets soften and new opportunities emerge elsewhere.

Tourism demand is no longer following the old map

The international tourism industry is entering a period in which established source markets can no longer be treated as guaranteed engines of growth.

For years, destinations across the Caribbean, North America and Europe relied heavily on repeat visitors from nearby countries. Canadians travelled south to the United States, Americans supplied enormous visitor volumes to Caribbean destinations, and European markets provided dependable long-haul and intra-regional demand.

The latest 2026 figures, however, show a more complicated picture.

Visitor numbers are rising in some markets while collapsing in others. Some destinations are losing travellers from traditional source countries but gaining demand from emerging markets. Others are benefiting from stronger spending even when visitor volumes remain relatively flat.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important for tourism boards, airlines, hotels, cruise operators and destination management companies.

Cuba faces one of the Caribbean’s sharpest tourism shocks

Cuba represents one of the clearest examples of how quickly a destination’s international tourism position can change.

International arrivals to Cuba fell by about 62% during January-July 2026 in the data examined, dropping from roughly 1.1 million visitors to about 419,000.

The decline is particularly significant because Cuba has historically depended heavily on North American markets. Canada, traditionally one of its most important tourism sources, suffered an especially dramatic contraction, with arrivals falling from around 478,000 to approximately 128,000 in the period covered.

US arrivals also declined substantially.

For Cuba, the issue is therefore bigger than a temporary fall in demand. The figures indicate pressure across several pillars of the tourism economy, including air connectivity, visitor spending, accommodation demand and the wider operating environment.

The lesson for other Caribbean destinations is clear: heavy dependence on a small number of international source markets can become a serious vulnerability when aviation capacity, economic conditions or traveller sentiment changes.

Jamaica is losing traditional demand but finding another route

Jamaica presents a very different response to changing travel patterns.

The island has also experienced weakness in two of its most important traditional markets. US arrivals declined by about 27.9% in the cited period, while Canadian arrivals fell by roughly 23.4%.

Yet Jamaica is not simply watching international demand disappear.

The destination is increasingly benefiting from Latin American markets. Arrivals from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru collectively increased by approximately 35.6% in the first half of 2026 in the data reviewed.

Colombia has been particularly notable, recording exceptionally strong growth.

This creates an important strategic shift for Jamaica. Instead of relying almost exclusively on North American travellers, the destination is expanding its source-market portfolio.

That strategy matters because tourism resilience is increasingly linked to diversification.

A destination with visitors arriving from multiple regions can potentially compensate for weakness in one market with growth in another. Airlines also have greater opportunities to develop new routes when tourism boards can demonstrate rising demand from previously underdeveloped markets.

Florida and California compete to bring Canadians back

The changing relationship between Canada and US tourism is one of the most important stories affecting North American travel.

Canadian visitors have historically represented a dependable source of demand for US destinations, particularly Florida, California and other states with established leisure, family and winter-sun markets.

That relationship weakened considerably in 2025 and remained a major concern entering 2026.

California estimated that Canadian visitation declined by around 20.1% in 2025, while Florida also experienced a reduction in Canadian visitors.

The response has been increasingly proactive.

Destination marketing organisations are attempting to rebuild demand through campaigns, partnerships and renewed messaging directed at Canadian travellers.

The significance goes beyond the two states.

Canadian visitors support hotels, attractions, restaurants, car rental companies, cruise itineraries, theme parks and retail businesses across the United States. A sustained reduction therefore has consequences throughout the tourism supply chain.

For US destinations, winning Canadians back is becoming a competitive exercise rather than an assumption based on geographical proximity.

Oahu continues to dominate Hawaii’s visitor economy

Hawaii offers a useful contrast because strong visitor spending can coexist with relatively modest changes in visitor volumes.

Oahu continues to lead Hawaii’s major islands in visitor numbers and spending. Official Hawaii data have consistently shown the island attracting substantially more visitors than Maui, while its visitor expenditure also remains considerably higher.

The distinction is important for understanding the state’s tourism economy.

The latest 2026 data cited in the research showed Hawaii visitor spending remaining resilient, with June spending approaching $2 billion and average daily visitor spending increasing strongly.

That suggests that tourism performance should not be judged solely by arrivals.

Higher daily expenditure can offset slower visitor growth, particularly when travellers spend more on accommodation, dining, experiences and premium activities.

For destinations worldwide, Hawaii’s performance reinforces a major industry principle: quality and value of visitation can matter as much as raw visitor volume.

South Africa sees sharp declines from selected markets

South Africa is another example of why percentage changes must be interpreted carefully.

Mexican arrivals to South Africa fell by approximately 56.7% in the first half of 2026 in the figures examined.

That is a substantial percentage contraction.

However, Mexico is not South Africa’s largest tourism source in absolute terms. The United States continues to represent a much larger market, meaning a smaller percentage decline from the US can still represent a greater number of lost visitors.

This distinction matters when analysing tourism statistics.

Percentage growth highlights momentum, while absolute visitor numbers reveal market scale.

South Africa therefore needs both strategies: protecting major source markets while rebuilding smaller markets capable of delivering future growth.

Poland benefits from strong European source markets

Poland provides one of Europe’s more positive tourism stories.

Germany remains an exceptionally important source market, with nearly two million German tourists recorded using Polish accommodation during 2025 in the data examined.

Ukraine also remained a major source market, with hundreds of thousands of visitors.

The performance highlights Poland’s geographical advantage and its ability to attract visitors through road, rail and air connectivity.

It also demonstrates the continuing importance of intra-European tourism.

While some European destinations face weaker demand because of economic pressures, airline capacity constraints and geopolitical uncertainty, destinations with accessible transport links and competitive pricing can continue to capture regional travel demand.

Poland’s performance therefore illustrates the importance of market proximity alongside long-haul tourism.

Türkiye and Cyprus confront a more difficult European environment

The European tourism landscape is not uniformly positive.

Türkiye recorded approximately 25.8 million international visitors during the first half of 2026, slightly below the comparable previous period in the data reviewed.

Several European source markets also weakened.

Cyprus experienced a notable decline in arrivals in the cited figures, while Türkiye faced weaker demand from a number of European markets.

The causes are complex.

Airline capacity, inflation, accommodation costs, consumer confidence and regional tensions can all influence destination decisions.

Travellers may still want international holidays but increasingly compare destinations according to total trip cost rather than simply the advertised hotel or airfare.

This is encouraging competition between Mediterranean destinations and emerging alternatives.

Africa moves towards easier regional travel

Kenya and Rwanda represent another important structural development: the continuing push towards easier intra-African travel.

Visa reform and simplified entry arrangements can remove one of the biggest barriers to regional tourism.

The wider objective is not simply to increase holiday arrivals. Easier movement can support business travel, conferences, trade, investment and multi-country itineraries.

For tourism operators, that creates the possibility of packaging several African destinations within one journey rather than selling individual countries in isolation.

The long-term opportunity is significant.

A more connected African tourism market could increase regional visitor spending while reducing excessive dependence on distant international source markets.

The US Visa Waiver Programme remains important for European travellers

Visa policy also continues to shape tourism demand.

Spain, France and many other European countries are already included in the US Visa Waiver Programme. Eligible travellers can generally enter the United States for stays of up to 90 days for tourism or business purposes after obtaining ESTA authorisation.

This is important because the programme should not be presented as a newly introduced 2026 visa-free scheme.

Instead, its significance lies in maintaining relatively frictionless access between the US and participating European markets.

For airlines and destinations, straightforward entry procedures can reduce barriers to booking and support spontaneous and repeat travel.

What the 2026 tourism market is really showing

The biggest story across these destinations is not simply that some countries are gaining tourists while others are losing them.

It is that tourism demand is becoming more fluid.

Cuba demonstrates the risks of severe contraction in established markets. Jamaica shows how quickly emerging Latin American demand can become strategically important. Florida and California demonstrate the need to actively defend mature source markets. Oahu shows why visitor spending can matter more than arrivals alone. Poland highlights the continuing strength of regional European travel, while Kenya and Rwanda demonstrate the potential of easier intra-African movement.

For tourism boards, airlines and hospitality businesses, diversification is becoming a central requirement.

Destinations that monitor source-market behaviour, develop new airline connectivity, improve visitor experiences and reduce travel friction will be better positioned to absorb shocks.

The 2026 market therefore offers a straightforward lesson: there is no single global tourism trend anymore.

Instead, international travel is splitting into multiple simultaneous stories — rapid growth, sharp contraction, market substitution and spending resilience.

That makes understanding the traveller, rather than simply counting the traveller, increasingly important to the future of global tourism.

Anup Kumar Keshan, Founder and Editor-in-Chief, Travel And Tour World —

“Jamaica’s decision to deepen its engagement with Brazil, Colombia and other Latin American markets reflects the changing nature of global tourism. US and Canadian travellers remain critically important, but diversification can give Jamaica greater resilience when established markets face pressure. The growth coming from Latin America demonstrates that destinations can uncover fresh opportunities by understanding emerging traveller demand and building stronger connectivity. Jamaica has a compelling tourism proposition, supported by its culture, beaches, hospitality and distinctive experiences. Expanding its source-market strategy can therefore create meaningful opportunities for airlines, hotels, attractions and local businesses, while positioning the destination for more balanced and sustainable international tourism growth.”

Jamaica’s tourism strategy is entering a new phase as US and Canadian tourists pull back from Caribbean travel. The island is responding by turning towards Brazil, Colombia and more Latin American markets. This is more than a short-term reaction. It signals a broader effort to diversify Jamaica’s international visitor base. Strong growth from Colombia and other South American countries could help offset weaker demand from traditional North American markets. For Jamaica, the opportunity extends beyond visitor numbers. New source markets can support airlines, hotels, restaurants, attractions and communities across the destination. Moreover, a broader tourism portfolio can provide greater protection when economic conditions, travel sentiment or aviation capacity change. Jamaica’s experience offers a wider lesson for the Caribbean: established markets remain valuable, but future growth may increasingly depend on finding new travellers, new connections and new reasons to visit.