Hawaii Joins California and Other States in Coping With Skyrocketing Airfare Surge Due to US Jet Fuel Price Pressure Amid Strong Travel Demand in Late 2026

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Hawaii joins California and other states in coping with skyrocketing airfare surge due to jet fuel price pressure amid strong travel demand in late 2026, as higher operating costs and limited capacity push domestic ticket prices sharply upward.

Americans heading into the final months of 2026 are confronting a noticeably more expensive domestic flying market, with Hawaii, California, Washington, Florida, Texas and several other states recording sharp increases in average ticket prices at major airports. The latest Bureau of Transportation Statistics data show the average US domestic itinerary fare reached $445 in the second quarter of 2026, the highest unadjusted quarterly fare in the agency’s records. The increase comes against a difficult operating backdrop in which US airlines have faced sharply higher fuel costs while scheduled domestic seat capacity has expanded only modestly nationally.

The national average rose from an unadjusted $428 in the first quarter to $445 in the second quarter, an increase of about 4.1%. Yet the national figure hides much larger jumps at individual airports. Honolulu climbed about 12% quarter on quarter, Seattle nearly 10%, San Francisco more than 9%, Los Angeles nearly 9%, Orlando more than 8%, Sacramento almost 8%, Phoenix about 7.5%, and Tampa more than 7%. These are airport-level fares rather than statewide averages, but together they show how differently the airfare squeeze is being felt across the country.

US domestic fares climb to a nominal record as airline costs remain under pressure

The latest BTS figures put the average domestic itinerary fare at $445 in the second quarter of 2026. Around 55% of itineraries were round trips, averaging $549, while 45% were one-way journeys averaging $312. The BTS measure includes the amount paid when the ticket is purchased but excludes optional extras such as checked baggage, seat-selection fees and upgrades, meaning the final amount paid by many travellers can be higher.

The record also requires context. The $445 average is the highest in nominal dollars, but it is not an inflation-adjusted record. In real terms, BTS says the second-quarter fare remained 32.7% below the comparable 1999 peak and 33.8% below the highest inflation-adjusted quarterly fare recorded by the agency.

Airline operating economics nevertheless changed sharply during 2026. US scheduled airlines paid an average $3.40 per gallon for fuel in July, 45.4% more than the $2.34 paid in July 2025. Total scheduled-airline fuel spending reached $5.89 billion, up 43% year on year. Earlier in May, fuel reached $4.09 per gallon, an increase of 85% from May 2025.

The US Energy Information Administration linked the sharp increase in 2026 jet-fuel prices to higher crude prices and supply concerns following disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. EIA said wholesale US jet fuel was expected to average approximately $3.37 per gallon in 2026, substantially above its earlier forecast.

Key US airfare and fuel indicators

Hawaii faces the sharpest major airport fare jump

Hawaii provides one of the clearest examples of the current airfare pressure. Honolulu International Airport recorded an average domestic itinerary fare of $437.31 in the second quarter, up from $390.49 in the first quarter. That represents a rise of about 12% in only three months, one of the largest increases among major US airports.

Hawaii’s geography makes aviation especially important because travellers cannot substitute rail or road transport for journeys to the continental United States. However, the state’s airport figures are far from uniform. Kahului averaged about $349, Kona about $341, Lihue roughly $317, and Hilo about $287 during the second quarter.

The Honolulu increase therefore should not be presented as a 12% statewide fare increase. It is an airport-specific shift. Even so, Honolulu’s movement matters because it is Hawaii’s principal aviation gateway and connects the islands with major mainland markets.

September capacity data also show that the Honolulu–Kahului corridor remained one of America’s busiest domestic routes, with roughly 236,700 scheduled seats and essentially flat year-on-year capacity.

For travellers, that combination illustrates Hawaii’s unique challenge: heavy dependence on aviation does not necessarily translate into rapidly expanding seat supply on every key route.

California travellers see prices rise across several major gateways

California’s airfare story is broader because increases were visible at several of the state’s most important airports. San Francisco’s average itinerary fare rose from $476.89 in Q1 to $521.06 in Q2, an increase of approximately 9.3%. Los Angeles climbed from $459.79 to $499.60, up about 8.7%, while Sacramento rose from $417.14 to $450.26, an increase approaching 8%. San Diego moved from $382.82 to $408.81, up roughly 6.8%.

Yet California also demonstrates why fare increases cannot simply be blamed on shrinking capacity. OAG data show the state actually added approximately 321,293 scheduled seats in September 2026, an increase of 2.8% from September 2025.

The Los Angeles–San Francisco corridor illustrates that point even more clearly. It became the busiest US domestic route in September with around 348,100 seats, up 29% year on year.

California is therefore facing a more complicated market. Ticket prices rose strongly during Q2 even as later-year scheduled capacity expanded. Fuel, airline pricing strategies, route mix, seasonality and demand can all influence fares, making it misleading to attribute California’s increases to seat shortages alone.

California Q2 airfare snapshot

Washington feels a near double digit rise through Seattle

Washington travellers encountered another substantial jump. The average Seattle itinerary fare increased from $414.06 in Q1 to $453.69 in Q2, a rise of about 9.6%.

The increase pushed Seattle above the national $445 average despite the airport’s position as a large and competitive West Coast gateway.

The state’s smaller airports were even more expensive in absolute terms. Pasco exceeded $513, Pullman surpassed $510, and Spokane approached $459 during the second quarter.

That gap highlights an important feature of US airfare economics. Smaller communities often have fewer nonstop choices and lower flight frequencies than major metropolitan areas. A traveller in Washington can therefore face significantly different average fares depending on the airport used.

Florida remains comparatively affordable at major tourism gateways despite steep increases

Florida presents one of the most revealing contradictions in the data. Orlando remained one of America’s relatively inexpensive major airports, yet its average fare rose sharply from $304.41 to $329.09 between Q1 and Q2, an increase of about 8.1%. Tampa moved from $366.56 to $393.16, up around 7.3%.

Miami reached $419.49, while Fort Lauderdale remained much cheaper at $321.04. These major South Florida and Central Florida gateways continue to benefit from dense airline competition and large leisure markets.

But Florida becomes dramatically more expensive once travellers move away from those large gateways. Tallahassee recorded a Q2 average of approximately $674.70, while Gainesville reached roughly $656.63 and Melbourne exceeded $547.

That produces a striking geographic divide. A traveller beginning a domestic trip in Tallahassee faced an average itinerary price more than $345 above Orlando’s average.

Florida therefore shows that the affordability battle is increasingly local. Large tourism airports can maintain lower average fares through volume and competition, while smaller regional markets face far more limited options.

Texas exposes the growing divide between hubs and regional airports

Texas displays an even wider fare gap. Dallas/Fort Worth recorded a Q2 average itinerary fare of $496.05, Houston Intercontinental $488.87, Austin $443.26, and Dallas Love Field $393.35.

Compared with Q1, Dallas/Fort Worth rose from $474.21 to $496.05, an increase of about 4.6%, while Houston Intercontinental increased from $465.76 to $488.87, or roughly 5%.

The real shock comes at smaller Texas airports. San Angelo averaged approximately $785.59, Tyler about $722.64, College Station roughly $720.17, Killeen around $691.03, and Waco more than $671.

This means that the average itinerary from some regional Texas airports was hundreds of dollars more expensive than from the state’s largest competing gateways.

For Texas travellers, driving several hours to a major airport can therefore become part of the airfare calculation itself.

Arizona faces higher fares despite Phoenix scale

Arizona’s largest gateway also moved substantially higher. Phoenix rose from an average $398.66 in Q1 to $428.68 in Q2, an increase of around 7.5%.

That remains below the national Q2 average, but smaller Arizona communities face a very different market. Yuma recorded an average fare of approximately $750.18, illustrating again how limited service at regional airports can produce far higher itinerary costs than at large hubs.

Phoenix therefore offers travellers a relatively competitive large-airport market, while residents farther from the state capital can face a substantial regional premium.

Nevada shows how strong tourism markets can keep average fares lower

Las Vegas provides a contrasting picture. Its Q2 average fare stood at $347.68, up from $325.48 in Q1, an increase of around 6.8%.

Even after that rise, Las Vegas remained nearly $100 below the national average. Heavy leisure traffic and broad airline competition help distinguish the Nevada market from many regional airports.

Yet seat capacity weakened later in the year. OAG reported that Nevada lost approximately 120,981 seats in September 2026, a decline of 4.1% from a year earlier. Las Vegas–Los Angeles capacity was down 18%, pushing the route out of the national Top 10.

Nevada therefore deserves particular attention heading deeper into late 2026. Its fares remain comparatively low, but reduced capacity on some markets can tighten choices during periods of strong leisure demand.

New York faces capacity reductions alongside higher fares

New York adds another dimension to the late-year picture. LaGuardia’s average fare increased from $378.81 in Q1 to $404.23 in Q2, a gain of about 6.7%. JFK stood considerably higher at $497.23 in Q2.

Unlike California, New York moved into September with less scheduled capacity than a year earlier. OAG recorded approximately 235,305 fewer seats, a year-on-year reduction of 2.8%, the largest absolute state decline in its September data.

That creates a more direct late-year capacity pressure story. With fewer seats scheduled statewide than in September 2025, travellers on high-demand dates may encounter less flexibility even though individual route conditions vary.

North Carolina combines high fares with shrinking capacity

North Carolina also stands out. Charlotte recorded one of the highest average fares among America’s largest airports at $531.83 in Q2, up from $513.38 in the previous quarter. Raleigh/Durham increased from $392.85 to $406.63.

At the same time, OAG recorded approximately 148,783 fewer seats across North Carolina in September than a year earlier, a decline of 3.9%.

For North Carolina, that combination deserves attention: relatively expensive fares at Charlotte alongside lower statewide scheduled capacity heading into the later part of the year.

Michigan travellers face some of the highest hub fares

Detroit recorded an average Q2 fare of $527, placing it among the most expensive major US airports. That was up from $516.90 in the first quarter.

Michigan’s scheduled capacity then declined by around 123,192 seats, or 5.9%, in September compared with the same month in 2025.

Detroit’s position therefore differs sharply from leisure-heavy airports such as Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Las Vegas. Travellers using the Michigan hub entered the second half of the year with average itinerary prices already well above the national level while scheduled statewide capacity later contracted.

Illinois shows that more seats do not automatically mean falling fares

Illinois provides another useful counterexample to the limited-capacity narrative. Chicago O’Hare’s average Q2 fare was $403.20, actually below its Q1 figure of $421.70.

At the same time, Illinois recorded the largest state-level capacity gain in September, adding about 483,347 seats, an increase of 8.6% year on year. Chicago O’Hare itself added around 471,100 seats, a gain of 10.7%.

Illinois shows why the US market cannot be reduced to a single explanation. Where capacity expands strongly and airline competition remains intense, fare movements can differ significantly from states facing shrinking schedules.

The capacity problem is uneven rather than nationwide

Nationally, domestic scheduled capacity reached approximately 85.9 million seats in September 2026, only 1% higher than September 2025. Total US capacity, including international flying, reached 111.6 million seats, up just 0.5%.

But beneath that modest national growth is a widening state divide.

States adding the most September capacity

• Illinois: +483,347 seats, or +8.6%
• California: +321,293, or +2.8%
• Oregon: +128,546, or +10.8%
• Colorado: +107,855, or +2.4%
• Pennsylvania: +102,989, or +4.5%

States losing the most September capacity

• New York: −235,305 seats, or −2.8%
• North Carolina: −148,783, or −3.9%
• Michigan: −123,192, or −5.9%
• Nevada: −120,981, or −4.1%
• Maryland: −113,111, or −8.2%

These figures show why “limited seat capacity” should be applied selectively. The US as a whole still had slightly more domestic capacity than a year earlier, but several important states experienced meaningful reductions.

Airlines are collecting less of their revenue from the basic ticket

The airfare story also extends beyond the published ticket price.

BTS says passenger fares accounted for 72.5% of total US passenger-airline operating revenue during the first six months of 2026, compared with 88.5% in 1990. Airlines generated $101.5 billion in total operating revenue during the first half of the year.

During Q2 alone, domestic passenger airlines generated $56.1 billion in operating revenue. Fares contributed $39.4 billion, or 70.3%, while baggage charges produced approximately $1.8 billion.

This matters to travellers because BTS average-fare data exclude optional extras such as baggage fees, preferred seating and upgrades. A $445 average itinerary therefore does not necessarily represent the traveller’s complete cost.

Higher fares have not translated into stronger airline profits

Another striking feature of 2026 is that expensive tickets have not automatically produced booming airline profits.

US scheduled passenger airlines reported an after-tax net gain of only $16 million in Q2 2026, down sharply from an after-tax gain of $4 billion a year earlier. Domestic operations recorded an after-tax loss of $484 million, although airlines still generated a domestic pre-tax operating profit of $2.1 billion.

That financial picture helps explain why fuel matters so much. Airlines were paying substantially more for one of their largest operating inputs even as consumers faced record nominal ticket prices.

What travellers face heading into late 2026

The latest data reveal not one national airfare crisis but a fragmented US aviation market.

Hawaii and Washington experienced some of the sharpest major-airport quarterly fare increases. California saw higher fares across several large gateways even while adding capacity. Florida remained relatively affordable through Orlando and Fort Lauderdale but exceptionally expensive through smaller regional airports. Texas revealed one of the country’s biggest divides between major hubs and regional communities. New York, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada and Maryland moved into September with fewer scheduled seats than a year earlier.

The common pressure running through the market is fuel. Although jet-fuel prices eased from their spring 2026 highs, the July average remained 45.4% above July 2025, while airline fuel spending was 43% higher.

At the same time, domestic scheduled capacity was growing by only 1% nationally in September, leaving relatively little aggregate expansion to absorb stronger demand on the busiest dates and routes.

For travellers, geography increasingly determines the size of the airfare shock. Someone leaving Orlando paid an average Q2 itinerary fare of just $329.09, while the equivalent BTS measure exceeded $500 at airports including Charlotte, Detroit, San Francisco and Salt Lake City. At smaller regional airports, averages could exceed $700 or even more.

State by state airfare pressure in Q2 2026

Latest outlook

The latest officially released US fare data still cover the second quarter of 2026, meaning there is not yet an official BTS Q3 average that proves fares continued rising throughout late 2026. BTS is scheduled to release its next quarterly fare figures in January 2027.

What is already clear is that the operating environment remains challenging. Airlines entered the second half of the year with fuel expenses sharply above 2025 levels, capacity growth modest nationally and seat reductions affecting several major states. Those pressures do not guarantee that fares will rise everywhere, but they create conditions in which travellers in capacity-constrained and less competitive markets can remain particularly exposed to expensive tickets.

For Hawaii, California, Washington, Florida, Texas and other states, the defining airfare story of 2026 is therefore not simply that flying became more expensive. It is that the cost increase has been highly uneven, leaving some travellers with abundant competition and fares below the national average while others pay hundreds of dollars more simply because of where their journey begins.

Hawaii joins California and other states in coping with skyrocketing airfare surge due to jet fuel price pressure amid strong travel demand in late 2026, as higher airline costs and tight capacity drive fares upward.

In conclusion, Hawaii joins California and other states in coping with a skyrocketing airfare surge due to jet fuel price pressure amid strong travel demand in late 2026, as elevated airline operating costs, uneven seat capacity and regional market differences keep domestic fares under pressure. Travellers are therefore facing sharply different ticket prices depending on airport competition, route availability and local demand.