The Great Aviation Divide: Thai Airways, Singapore Airlines, and ANA Lead SAF Adoption Across Thailand, Singapore, and Japan, While China and Russia Shield Carriers from ICAO Rules

The global aviation sector is undergoing a profound structural reorganisation, shifting from a century-old dependence on imported fossil fuels toward localised biological energy resources. In a watershed moment for the Asia-Pacific region, Thai Airways and the Bangchak Group have successfully operated flight TG904 from Bangkok to Singapore using Thailand-produced HEFA-SPK Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

THAILAND DECARBONISATION INITIATIVE — This development is critically important for global consumers and international markets, highlighting how tier-one carriers like Thai Airways, Singapore Airlines, and All Nippon Airways (ANA) are executing strict environmental mandates across Thailand, Singapore, and Japan, while state-backed operators in China and Russia resist international climate directives. It signals the definitive end of cheap, entirely fossil-reliant air travel and establishes a new economic paradigm where domestic waste—specifically used cooking oil—is transformed into high-grade jet fuel. This is uniquely significant because it represents the first commercial, closed-loop supply chain of SAF in Southeast Asia, bypassing reliance on Western refineries and demonstrating that developing economies can unilaterally execute the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decarbonisation frameworks.

Primary Analysis: Thailand’s Regulatory Masterplan

The successful deployment of SAF on an international commercial route is not an isolated corporate exercise; it is the physical manifestation of a rigorous legislative framework enacted by the Thai state. The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT), operating in conjunction with the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), has formalised a state-backed trajectory to meet net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

In late 2025, CAAT signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with eight domestic airlines. This directive establishes a voluntary but highly incentivised framework to integrate SAF on designated international routes, targeting an initial blend of 0.5% to 1% by the end of 2026.

The eight airlines bound by the CAAT environmental initiative are:

• Thai Airways International: The national flag carrier leading the initial commercial deployment.
• Bangkok Airways: Securing domestic supply via a specific Letter of Intent with PTT Oil and Retail Business.
• Thai AirAsia & Thai AirAsia X: Representing the integration of low-cost carriers into the green framework.
• Nok Air & Thai Lion Air: Further expanding compliance across domestic and regional routes.
• Thai VietJet Air: Aligning cross-border low-cost operations with state targets.
• K-Mile Air: Ensuring the lucrative air freight and cargo sector complies with national emission standards.

To facilitate this transition, the Bangchak Group has inaugurated Thailand’s first standalone SAF production facility at the Phra Khanong Refinery. Utilising Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology, the facility is producing 1 million litres of Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (SPK) per day. State statistical data confirms this bio-kerosene can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel.

To institutionalise this transition, Thailand’s Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE) has mapped out a binding phased quota system for aviation fuel suppliers.

Table: Official DEDE Sustainable Aviation Fuel Adoption Targets

Global Parallel Trends: The Compliant Asia-Pacific Bloc

SINGAPORE & JAPAN ALIGNMENT — Thailand does not stand alone in this regulatory pivot. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a cohesive bloc of Asia-Pacific nations is aggressively parallelising their aviation policies with ICAO directives. The Republic of Singapore and Japan are currently leading this regional legislative alignment, pulling major international carriers into compliance.

The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) has implemented a stringent mandate requiring all outbound flights from Changi Airport to utilize a 1% SAF blend by 2027. This mandate is absolute, reflecting the city-state’s capacity to absorb higher operational costs, forcing Singapore Airlines to reconfigure its global fuel procurement strategies.

Similarly, Japan has taken an uncompromising legislative stance on the ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism has embedded CORSIA compliance directly into national law. In Japan, regulatory penalties are severe; airlines failing to secure compliant carbon credits or SAF blends face the immediate revocation of their operating licences, a policy that has forced carriers like All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines into rapid compliance. Other regional heavyweights, including Korean Air, Qantas, and Cebu Pacific, have also begun procuring SAF to navigate this tightening legislative net.

The Counter-Trend Divergence: Sino-Russian Opposition

CHINA & RUSSIA REJECTION — Despite the momentum in Southeast Asia and Japan, a formidable geopolitical resistance has emerged. The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation are actively rejecting the ICAO’s CORSIA framework, exposing a deep fracture in global climate diplomacy.

Both nations argue that the mandatory offsetting and SAF blending requirements unfairly burden emerging and non-Western economies. According to IATA data, conventional jet fuel already accounts for over 30% of total airline operating expenses globally, driven largely by volatile crack spreads. Mandating bio-kerosene, which remains significantly more expensive than crude oil derivatives, is viewed by Beijing and Moscow as a Western-engineered tax on their domestic economic growth, leading them to shield carriers like Air China and Aeroflot from these costs.

The consequences of this divergence are severe. Academic and market analyses indicate that the refusal of major powers—specifically the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) alongside Russia—to participate in the CORSIA scheme effectively slashes the programme’s global environmental effectiveness by nearly 25%. By refusing to domesticate ICAO rules, China and Russia are deliberately prioritising the financial viability of their state-backed airlines over immediate carbon neutrality, creating a stark policy schism against the EU and compliant Asian states.

Future Outlook: The Bifurcation of Global Airspace

The immediate geopolitical consequence of this schism is the fragmentation of international aviation. Over the next decade, global airspace is projected to bifurcate into two distinct operational environments. “Green corridors” will dominate routes between compliant states (e.g., the UK, EU, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand), where passengers will absorb the premium costs of SAF-blended flights operated by Thai Airways, Singapore Airlines, and ANA.

Conversely, non-compliant airspace over Russia, parts of the Middle East, and China will operate on conventional, highly polluting fossil fuels to maintain ultra-competitive pricing. This will create immense regulatory friction. European and compliant Asian carriers operating under strict environmental levies will find themselves at a distinct pricing disadvantage against state-subsidised airlines from non-participating nations.

Furthermore, as demand for used cooking oil and biomass surges to feed facilities like Bangchak’s refinery, a new global commodities war for biological waste is imminent. Nations that secure domestic feedstock supply chains will control the future of aviation, while those reliant on imported bio-kerosene will face chronic inflation.

Conclusion

The landmark collaboration between Thai Airways and the Bangchak Group is a triumph of localized green engineering, but it also casts a spotlight on a fractured global system. While Thailand, Singapore, and Japan are proving that the transition to low-carbon aviation is technically and legislatively possible, the staunch opposition from China and Russia guarantees that the ICAO’s net-zero aspirations will face a turbulent reality. The era of universal, unregulated airspace is over; the future of flying will be dictated not just by aerodynamics, but by the complex, often conflicting environmental laws of the land below.

Image Courtesy: Thai Airways