Bahamas Aligns With Jamaica and Other Countries in Hammering US Tourism With 4% Drop in Tourist Arrivals in 2026

The United States is facing a noticeable pullback from parts of the Caribbean travel market in 2026, with The Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Cuba, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St Lucia and several other countries all sending fewer visitors to the US than a year earlier.

The combined picture is significant. The dataset shows 667,874 visitors in the selected 2026 period, down from 694,921 in the comparable 2025 period. That is a decline of 27,047 visitors, or 3.9%, which rounds to roughly 4%.

The fall does not mean Caribbean travel to the United States has collapsed. In fact, some regional markets, including the Dominican Republic, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Aruba and Curaçao, are still growing. What the data does show is that the US inbound market from the Caribbean is becoming much more uneven.

The sharpest losses are concentrated in a mixture of large and small source markets. Jamaica recorded the biggest absolute fall, losing 15,602 visitors, while Cuba posted the steepest percentage decline at 32.6%. The Bahamas, although down by a comparatively modest 2%, matters because of its much larger travel volume and close economic links with Florida.

This makes 2026 less a story of one Caribbean-wide collapse and more a story of fragmented demand, with some countries pulling back sharply while others continue to send more travellers north.

Caribbean Visitor Markets Declining Into the US in 2026

The Bahamas Matters Because of Scale

The Bahamas recorded 117,356 visitors to the United States in the selected 2026 period, down from 119,716 a year earlier. The 2% decline amounts to 2,360 fewer travellers.

At first glance, a 2% fall looks mild compared with Cuba, Jamaica or Antigua and Barbuda. But The Bahamas carries far more weight because of the size of its travel relationship with the US.

The country sits just off Florida and has extraordinarily close aviation, cruise, business and family links with the American market. Travel between Nassau, Freeport and Florida is often treated almost like a regional corridor rather than a long-haul international journey.

That makes even a modest decline noteworthy.

The Bahamas also occupies a unique economic position because tourism itself is heavily US-dependent. Around 85% of Bahamian visitors historically come from the United States, while tourism contributes roughly 70% of the country’s economy. That means the two tourism markets are deeply intertwined. Trade.gov

The current decline in Bahamian residents travelling north may therefore reflect household spending choices, airfare shifts, route economics or changes in discretionary US shopping and leisure trips rather than weakness in Bahamas tourism itself.

That distinction is essential.

This dataset measures visitors from The Bahamas going to the United States. It does not show US visitors travelling to The Bahamas.

Jamaica Is the Biggest Absolute Drag on Caribbean Arrivals

Jamaica is the standout source-market decline by volume.

US arrivals from Jamaica fell from 109,883 to 94,281, a drop of 15,602 travellers or 14.2%.

No other declining Caribbean market in the dataset comes close to that absolute loss.

This matters because Jamaican travel to the United States is not driven by tourism alone. It includes:

• Family visits
• Shopping
• Business travel
• Education-linked trips
• Leisure breaks
• Visits to the Jamaican diaspora

That makes the market more diverse than a conventional beach-tourism flow.

A double-digit contraction can therefore indicate pressure across several forms of travel at once.

One likely factor is cost sensitivity. Caribbean travellers heading to the US face airfare, accommodation, food, ground transportation and shopping costs denominated largely in US dollars. When household finances tighten, discretionary trips can be postponed or shortened.

Airline capacity can amplify that effect. Fewer frequencies or higher fares can reduce travel even when underlying interest remains strong.

Jamaica’s 14.2% drop should therefore be read as a significant reduction in realised travel, not necessarily a disappearance of desire to visit the United States.

Cuba Posts the Steepest Decline

Cuba recorded the largest percentage contraction at 32.6%, with arrivals falling from 12,138 to 8,182.

That represents 3,956 fewer travellers.

Cuba needs to be analysed separately from most Caribbean markets because travel between Cuba and the United States is shaped by a distinctive political and regulatory framework.

Family connections are important, but travel is affected by visa access, airline networks, bilateral policy and wider economic conditions.

The steep decline therefore cannot simply be attributed to weaker leisure demand.

Cuba’s domestic economic difficulties also matter. Persistent shortages, weak purchasing power and infrastructure problems reduce the ability of residents to undertake discretionary international trips.

For the US travel industry, Cuba consequently represents a structurally constrained source market rather than a conventional tourism market.

Trinidad and Tobago Records the Second-Largest Absolute Loss

Trinidad and Tobago sent 69,991 visitors to the US, down from 74,767.

That is a 6.4% decline and a loss of 4,776 visitors.

The percentage decline is less severe than Jamaica’s, but the volume makes Trinidad and Tobago one of the most important contributors to the overall 3.9% regional contraction.

Travel between Trinidad and the United States is heavily connected to family networks, education, business and diaspora ties.

This means the decline can have economic effects on both sides.

US destinations such as Florida and New York can feel weaker hotel, retail and airline demand, while Caribbean airlines and travel agencies lose outbound passenger volume.

The key issue here is scale. A 6.4% contraction in a 70,000-passenger market contributes far more to the regional decline than a 20% contraction in a market of only a few thousand travellers.

Barbados Falls Nearly 9%

Barbados recorded 19,740 visitors, down from 21,667.

That represents an 8.9% decline, or 1,927 fewer travellers.

For Barbados, travel to the United States is supported by strong diaspora and family links, particularly with Florida and the northeastern US.

The decline is meaningful because Barbados is a comparatively small country, making every thousand international travellers more economically important.

The fall may also illustrate increasing competition from other international destinations.

Caribbean residents do not automatically choose the US for every overseas trip. Europe, Canada and other Caribbean destinations can compete for the same travel budget.

If airfares rise or US trip costs become less attractive, outbound demand can shift rapidly.

Antigua and Barbuda Records a Much Sharper Contraction

Antigua and Barbuda’s visitor flow to the United States fell from 7,835 to 5,883, a steep 24.9% decline.

That is a loss of 1,952 travellers.

The percentage drop is one of the largest in the dataset.

However, the small base matters.

A relatively modest absolute change can produce a dramatic percentage swing in smaller Caribbean states.

That means Antigua and Barbuda’s fall should be taken seriously without equating it with Jamaica’s much larger economic impact.

The central concern is whether the decline persists.

One weak period can be influenced by airline schedules or calendar effects. A sustained double-digit contraction would indicate something more structural.

Dominica Records the Second-Sharpest Percentage Decline

Dominica recorded only 2,452 visitors, down from 3,286.

The resulting 25.4% fall is the second-largest percentage decline after Cuba.

Yet the absolute loss was 834 travellers.

This is a perfect example of why percentage changes and absolute volumes should always be read together.

A 25% decline sounds dramatic, but Dominica’s effect on total US inbound tourism is limited because its outbound market is small.

For Dominica itself, however, a decline of hundreds of travellers may still matter to airlines and travel agents operating thin regional routes.

Small-island aviation economics are highly sensitive to passenger volume.

St Kitts and Nevis Falls 13.9%

St Kitts and Nevis recorded 5,119 visitors, down from 5,947.

That represents a decline of 828 travellers or 13.9%.

The market is small, but the fall is significant.

Like other Eastern Caribbean states, St Kitts and Nevis relies heavily on limited air connections. Changes in schedules can therefore have an outsized effect.

A single reduction in service can make US journeys more expensive or less convenient, especially when travellers must connect through another Caribbean airport.

Connectivity becomes a critical demand factor.

St Vincent and the Grenadines Drops 12.6%

St Vincent and the Grenadines recorded 4,090 travellers, down from 4,679.

That represents a 12.6% decline, or 589 fewer arrivals into the United States.

The destination has expanded international air connectivity in recent years, but outbound traffic remains small compared with Jamaica, The Bahamas or Trinidad and Tobago.

The current fall therefore deserves monitoring but should not be interpreted as a major contributor to the overall US inbound decline.

St Lucia Falls 10.8%

St Lucia’s US-bound visitor total declined from 6,767 to 6,033, a fall of 734 travellers or 10.8%.

Again, air access and fare levels are likely to be important.

Caribbean residents often have fewer airline choices than travellers originating in larger markets.

That makes them especially sensitive to changes in frequency and pricing.

If fares rise sharply, travellers can delay family visits or consolidate several shorter journeys into one trip.

Grenada Declines 9.1%

Grenada recorded 5,630 US-bound visitors, down from 6,195.

That represents a fall of 565 travellers or 9.1%.

The decline is notable because Grenada is otherwise benefiting from strong inbound tourism performance in several markets.

That underlines another important distinction.

A Caribbean country can simultaneously receive more tourists while sending fewer residents abroad.

Inbound tourism strength does not automatically translate into outbound travel growth.

The two markets are driven by different income, exchange-rate and airline dynamics.

British Virgin Islands Falls 8.6%

The British Virgin Islands recorded 7,221 travellers, compared with 7,897 a year earlier.

That represents a loss of 676 visitors, or 8.6%.

The territory has close ties with the United States and neighbouring US Virgin Islands, making regional mobility particularly important.

Small changes in ferry or air connectivity can therefore affect cross-border travel quickly.

Haiti Declines 4.6%

Haiti recorded 11,826 travellers, down from 12,400.

That is a decline of 574 travellers or 4.6%.

Haiti’s travel market must be interpreted through the country’s wider security, economic and aviation environment.

Travel patterns are influenced heavily by family connections, migration and essential journeys rather than leisure alone.

This means a modest percentage decline can reflect disruptions that have little to do with conventional tourism demand.

Turks and Caicos Shows Only a Marginal Decline

Turks and Caicos recorded 6,319 travellers, compared with 6,392.

The decline is just 1.1%, or 73 travellers.

This is effectively a relatively stable market compared with the double-digit declines elsewhere.

A fluctuation this small can be influenced by timing, airline schedules or normal monthly variation.

It should therefore not be interpreted as evidence of major structural weakness unless the trend continues.

Martinique Is Almost Flat

Martinique recorded 1,591 travellers, just 13 fewer than the 1,604 recorded in the comparison period.

That produces a 0.8% decline.

For practical purposes, the market is broadly flat.

Its inclusion among declining markets is mathematically correct, but its contribution to the wider 4% Caribbean contraction is negligible.

Guadeloupe Shows a Small Absolute Fall

Guadeloupe recorded 2,581 travellers, down from 2,689.

That represents a decline of 108 visitors or 4%.

As with Martinique, the market is too small to materially shape the regional US tourism picture.

The importance lies more in what it says about the breadth of the slowdown.

Several small Caribbean source markets are moving down at the same time.

The 4% Regional Decline Is Concentrated in a Few Markets

The combined visitor count fell from 694,921 to 667,874.

That is a loss of 27,047 travellers.

But the decline is not evenly distributed.

Jamaica alone accounts for 15,602 missing visitors, or roughly 58% of the entire net decline.

Add Trinidad and Tobago’s loss of 4,776 and Cuba’s 3,956, and those three markets account for almost all of the headline contraction before gains elsewhere are considered.

This is therefore not a broad-based Caribbean collapse.

It is a decline led disproportionately by several important markets.

Not Every Caribbean Market Is Falling

Several countries are moving in the opposite direction.

The Dominican Republic increased 0.9%, rising from 226,376 to 228,501 visitors.

Bermuda increased 3.6%.

Cayman Islands rose 6.9%.

Aruba surged 22.7%.

Curaçao increased 30.3%.

Saint Martin rose 38.7%.

These gains are extremely important analytically because they prove that Caribbean-origin demand for US travel has not disappeared.

Travellers are still heading to America.

The issue is that the strength of that demand differs considerably from one country to another.

US Inbound Tourism Is Facing a Wider 2026 Slowdown

The Caribbean weakness also sits inside a broader US inbound travel environment.

National Travel and Tourism Office data showed overseas visitation to the United States down 6.5% year on year in May 2026, while year-to-date overseas visitation through May was down 4.8%. Non-US citizen air passenger arrivals were also down 4.5% during May. Trade.gov

That wider slowdown gives the Caribbean data more significance.

The regional decline is not occurring in isolation.

At the same time, total international arrivals have been volatile rather than uniformly weak. March 2026, for example, recorded a 2% year-on-year increase in overall international visitor arrivals. Trade.gov

This indicates a market moving unevenly by month and source country.

The US Government Still Forecasts Full-Year Growth

Interestingly, official US projections remain positive.

The National Travel and Tourism Office currently forecasts 70.5 million international visitors to the United States in 2026, representing growth of approximately 3.2% from 2025. Trade.gov

That creates an important tension.

Current data shows weakness in several overseas and Caribbean markets, while the full-year government forecast expects overall international visitation to increase.

The remainder of 2026 will therefore determine whether major events, seasonal travel and stronger markets can offset weaker source countries.

Why Caribbean Travellers Matter to Florida Most

The most immediate US impact is likely to be felt in Florida.

Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Tampa function as major gateways for Caribbean travellers.

A decline in visitor numbers can affect:

• Airlines
• Hotels
• Shopping centres
• Restaurants
• Car hire
• Cruise connections
• Family travel
• Airport retail
• Local transportation

Caribbean visitors are particularly valuable because many combine family visits with shopping and leisure spending.

The loss of thousands of travellers therefore represents more than fewer airport arrivals.

It represents lost economic activity across several sectors.

The Bahamas Decline Has Special Importance for South Florida

The Bahamas is perhaps the clearest example.

Nassau and South Florida are separated by a short flight, and business, family and leisure links are deeply established.

The 2% decline may therefore be small statistically but meaningful commercially.

The same applies to Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, whose large diaspora communities create strong travel flows into Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and New York.

When those source markets weaken, Florida’s travel economy can feel the effect quickly.

Cost and Connectivity Are Likely to Decide the Rest of 2026

The second half of the year will depend heavily on three factors.

Airfares: Caribbean travellers are price-sensitive because international trips can represent a large share of household discretionary spending.

Airline capacity: Fewer seats can suppress visitor volume even where demand remains healthy.

US travel costs: Accommodation, food and shopping prices can determine whether travellers take a US trip or postpone it.

These factors can produce rapid changes because much Caribbean-US travel is discretionary and relatively short-haul.

The Bigger Story Is Fragmentation

The strongest conclusion from the data is that the Caribbean-US travel market is fragmenting.

Some source countries are pulling back dramatically.

Others are broadly stable.

Several are growing strongly.

That means the 3.9% overall decline should not be presented as evidence that the entire Caribbean has stopped travelling to the United States.

The reality is more interesting.

Jamaica, Cuba, Trinidad and Tobago, Antigua and Barbuda and several Eastern Caribbean markets are dragging down the aggregate, while Aruba, Curaçao, the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and the Dominican Republic are cushioning the fall.

That is a story of shifting market share.

Conclusion

The Bahamas aligning with Jamaica and other Caribbean countries in sending fewer travellers to the United States has created a 3.9%, or roughly 4%, decline in the selected regional visitor market in 2026.

But the headline figure hides substantial differences.

Jamaica is the biggest absolute drag, losing 15,602 visitors.

Cuba has the steepest percentage decline, down 32.6%.

Trinidad and Tobago lost 4,776 travellers.

The Bahamas slipped 2%, equivalent to 2,360 fewer visitors.

Smaller markets including Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia and Grenada have also posted notable percentage declines.

Yet other Caribbean countries are growing.

That means the United States is not witnessing a uniform collapse in Caribbean demand. It is seeing a redistribution of travel, with some markets retreating while others continue expanding.

For US tourism — particularly Florida, New York and other major Caribbean gateways — the challenge in the remainder of 2026 will be understanding why important source markets such as Jamaica and The Bahamas are slowing while others are accelerating.

The answer will likely determine whether the current 4% decline becomes a temporary mid-year correction or develops into a more durable shift in Caribbean travel behaviour.