Arizona Beats Pennsylvania and All 47 Other US States in Shoplifting Index as California Reports Highest Total and Nevada Records Fastest Rise

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Arizona beats Pennsylvania and all 47 other US states in the shoplifting index, while California reports the highest total and Nevada records the fastest rise. Meanwhile, the latest analysis shows why national shoplifting trends differ by state. Together, these figures reveal contrasting patterns in scale, rate and momentum.

Arizona leads the US shoplifting index, as California reports the highest total and Nevada records the fastest rise. The analysis compares scale, rates and momentum across states. Meanwhile, national reports remain above 2023 levels, although most states recorded declines during 2025, creating a fragmented national picture for businesses and communities.

What Does the 2026 US Shoplifting Index Show?

The latest 50-state analysis from Tad Nelson & Associates shows that shoplifting patterns across the United States vary significantly depending on how the data is measured. Arizona ranks first in the 2026 index with a score of 85.61, followed by Pennsylvania at 83.98 and Maryland at 80.82.

However, the ranking does not simply identify the states with the largest number of reported incidents. Instead, the index combines three different measures: the reported shoplifting rate in 2025, the total number of reports recorded during the year, and the change in reports between 2024 and 2025.

This distinction is important because California recorded 99,591 shoplifting reports in 2025, more than three times Arizona’s 30,760 reports. Yet California ranks ninth, with an index score of 70.92, while Arizona occupies the top position.

The figures therefore provide a broader picture of shoplifting pressure. A state can have a large number of reports without recording the strongest composite result, while another state can rank highly because of its rate and recent movement.

Why Does Arizona Rank First?

Arizona’s first-place position comes despite a 1.5% decline in reported shoplifting between 2024 and 2025. The state recorded 30,760 reports during 2025, but its longer-term movement remains significant, with the total still 41.6% higher than the 2023 figure.

That two-year increase is the second-largest among states, according to the analysis. The combination of its reported rate, total volume and change over time therefore gives Arizona a higher composite index than states with substantially larger absolute totals.

The result demonstrates why a single-year decline does not necessarily remove a state from a high position in a composite ranking. Arizona’s 2025 reduction occurred against a much higher baseline than two years earlier, leaving the state with a substantially elevated total compared with 2023.

For businesses operating in retail centres, shopping districts and destination markets, the distinction between annual movement and longer-term levels can be particularly relevant. A fall in one year does not automatically mean that reported activity has returned to earlier conditions.

America’s 10 Highest Shoplifting Index Scores, 2026

Which States Follow Arizona?

Pennsylvania ranks second with an index score of 83.98 and 34,694 reported incidents in 2025. Maryland follows in third place at 80.82, with 31,123 reports, while Oregon ranks fourth with a score of 80.20 and 27,352 reports.

Colorado occupies fifth place with an index score of 77.76 after recording 26,689 reports. New Jersey is sixth at 74.80, followed by Virginia at 74.29.

New York ranks eighth with 71.12 and recorded 71,578 reports. California follows in ninth place with 70.92 and 99,591 reports, while Nevada completes the top 10 at 70.61, despite recording only 12,871 reports.

The table illustrates the difference between volume and the composite index. Virginia’s 42,720 reports, for example, exceed the totals recorded by Arizona, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Oregon, Colorado and New Jersey, yet Virginia remains seventh.

Similarly, New York’s 71,578 reports are substantially higher than the totals in most of the states ranked above it. The methodology therefore prevents raw volume from becoming the sole measure of shoplifting pressure.

Why Is California Different From Arizona?

California presents one of the clearest examples of why shoplifting data needs to be interpreted carefully. The state recorded 99,591 reports in 2025, the largest total among the 10 highest-ranked states and one of the largest totals in the entire analysis.

Yet its index score of 70.92 places it ninth. California also recorded a 3.1% increase from 2024 to 2025, making it one of only eight states where reported shoplifting increased during the latest year.

Its position combines a very large report volume with the other components of the index. This means California’s ninth-place ranking should not be interpreted as evidence that the state has less shoplifting activity than states above it in absolute terms.

Instead, the ranking answers a different question. It measures the combined position produced by rate, volume and recent change, rather than simply counting incidents.

That distinction is especially important when comparing large states with smaller populations or different reporting patterns. Report totals can be influenced by population size, retail concentration, law-enforcement reporting practices and other factors that make simple comparisons difficult.

The Eight States Still Moving Up

Which States Are Still Recording Increases?

Only eight states recorded an increase in reported shoplifting between 2024 and 2025, according to the analysis. Nevada recorded the largest increase, rising 11.7%, followed by Massachusetts at 5.2% and Mississippi at 4.7%.

California increased by 3.1%, while North Dakota rose 2.4%. New Jersey recorded a 2.0% increase, Kentucky moved up 0.6%, and Texas registered a 0.2% rise.

Nevada stands out because its annual increase was more than twice that of the next-highest state. Its 2025 total was also 50% higher than its 2023 level, giving the state the largest two-year increase in the analysis.

The Nevada figures illustrate the importance of momentum within the index. Although the state recorded only 12,871 reports in 2025, its recent growth places it among the 10 highest-ranked states.

California provides another important contrast. Its large volume and 3.1% annual increase combine two different dimensions of the national picture, showing that high-volume states can also be part of the smaller group moving upwards.

What Happened Across the United States in 2025?

The national figures show a significant change between 2024 and 2025. Reported shoplifting incidents increased from 994,652 in 2023 to 1,122,174 in 2024, before declining to 1,069,716 in 2025.

That means the national total fell from its 2024 peak but remained 7.5% above the 2023 level. The decline was widespread, with 42 states recording lower totals in 2025 than in 2024.

At the same time, 26 states still recorded more reports in 2025 than they did in 2023. This creates a mixed national picture: year-on-year improvement occurred across most states, but the longer-term level remained higher in more than half of the country.

The distinction between these two comparisons matters. Looking only at the 2024–25 change would suggest a broad national decline, while comparing 2025 with 2023 shows that the overall level has not returned to the earlier baseline.

For retailers and destination economies, both measures can provide useful context. Recent direction can help identify where conditions are changing, while the two-year comparison indicates whether those changes have brought reported activity back towards earlier levels.

Is Shoplifting Rising Again in 2026?

The latest city-level evidence cited in the analysis suggests that the decline seen during 2025 may not have continued into the first half of 2026.

According to data from the Council on Criminal Justice, the average reported shoplifting rate across 18 US cities increased 4% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. The rate was also 5% above the first half of 2019.

The Council on Criminal Justice reported that shoplifting was the only one of 13 tracked offences to remain above its pre-pandemic level during that comparison. Its H1 2026 rate was also the highest first-half figure in the organisation’s nine-year series.

That development provides additional context for the state-level analysis. The 2025 figures establish a national baseline after the widespread annual declines, while the first-half 2026 city data points towards renewed upward movement in the locations covered by the CCJ dataset.

However, the two datasets should not be treated as identical. The state analysis covers all 50 states and uses reported shoplifting records, while the CCJ comparison examines selected cities. Their populations, geographical coverage and methodologies differ.

“The latest shoplifting analysis provides a useful national perspective by showing how scale, rates and momentum can tell different stories. These findings add valuable context for businesses, communities and the wider travel economy, particularly as destinations continue assessing changing retail environments and visitor experiences across the United States today overall.” says Anup Kumar Keshan, Founder and Editor-in-Chief, Travel And Tour World

What Does the Index Measure?

The 2026 All-State Shoplifting Index is based on FBI Crime Data Explorer shoplifting records across all 50 states. The methodology assigns different weights to three indicators.

The 2025 reported shoplifting rate accounts for 45% of the index. The total number of reported incidents in 2025 contributes another 30%, while the change between 2024 and 2025 represents the remaining 25%.

This weighting explains why the ranking differs from a straightforward list of states by report volume. Rate carries the greatest weight, followed by total volume and then recent change.

The methodology also means that the index should be used as a comparative measure rather than as a direct estimate of the actual number of shoplifting incidents occurring in each state. Reported crime data captures incidents known to authorities and can be affected by reporting and recording practices.

That limitation is important for readers interpreting state comparisons. A reported increase or decrease does not necessarily represent an identical change in all underlying shoplifting activity.

What Does the Data Mean for Retail and Travel?

Shoplifting trends extend beyond individual retailers because retail districts, shopping destinations and commercial centres form part of wider local economies. In cities that depend heavily on visitor spending, changes in retail conditions can also become relevant to destination management and the visitor experience.

The data does not establish a direct relationship between shoplifting reports and tourism performance. However, it provides a useful indicator for understanding the operating environment in states and cities where retail is an important component of local commerce.

For travel businesses, the most useful lesson is the difference between scale and momentum. California has the largest reported volume among the top 10, while Nevada has the strongest recent increase, and Arizona has the highest composite index score.

These are three distinct signals. Treating them as interchangeable could obscure meaningful differences between destinations and markets.

Retailers, tourism organisations, hospitality businesses and local authorities can therefore use the data as one component of broader market monitoring, alongside local crime statistics, visitor data, economic indicators and destination-specific information.

What Should Readers Take From the 2026 Ranking?

The 2026 ranking shows that there is no single measure capable of describing the national shoplifting picture. Arizona leads the composite index, California records the highest volume among the top-ranked states, and Nevada records the strongest recent increase.

At the national level, reported shoplifting declined from 2024 to 2025, but the 2025 total remained above the 2023 level. Meanwhile, city-level data from the Council on Criminal Justice indicates that shoplifting rates increased during the first half of 2026 in its 18-city sample.

Taken together, the figures describe a changing but uneven pattern. Some states are seeing annual declines, others remain above their earlier levels, and a smaller group continues to record increases.

The most useful interpretation is therefore not simply which state ranks first. Instead, the analysis shows how different measures can produce different pictures of the same national issue, making rate, scale and recent momentum important when assessing shoplifting trends across the United States.

Arizona tops the index, while California records the largest volume and Nevada rises fastest. Together, the findings show why shoplifting trends cannot be understood through totals alone. The 2026 picture combines scale, rates and momentum, giving retailers, policymakers and travel businesses a clearer view of changing local conditions nationwide overall.

Overall, Arizona beats Pennsylvania and all 47 other US states in the shoplifting index, but California records the highest total and Nevada records the fastest rise. The comparison shows that shoplifting varies significantly nationwide. Therefore, the index highlights different pressures when scale, reported rates and recent momentum are measured.