San Francisco Travel Association Predicts Skyrocketing Growth in Tourists Arrivals with 23.22 Million Visitors Along with Rapid Increase in Hotel and Meetings Industry

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San Francisco Travel Association, the official destination marketing organization for the City and County of San Francisco, has released its updated Visitor and Lodging Forecast for 2024 and 2025 during the annual Visitor Impact Summit. Held at the W San Francisco and organized in partnership with the Hotel Council of San Francisco, the summit was attended by over 300 leaders from the city’s tourism industry.

The 2024 tourism industry outlook suggests modest growth in visitor arrivals and spending, following a strong rebound from the pandemic in 2023. However, challenges remain, particularly due to a lighter convention schedule at Moscone Center and continued pressure from the trend of domestic travelers opting for international vacations.

In 2023, San Francisco welcomed 23.1 million visitors, contributing $8.8 billion to the local economy. This year, visitor arrivals are projected to rise slightly to 23.22 million, with visitor spending expected to hit $9.24 billion. While the increase in tourism spending is encouraging, hotel occupancy and room revenue are forecasted to face headwinds due to a lighter convention schedule and a dip in domestic leisure travel.

2024 Tourism Forecast: Modest Growth Amid Challenges

According to San Francisco Travel’s 2024 forecast, the city’s tourism industry will experience a slight improvement in visitor numbers, but hotel performance metrics are set to decline compared to 2023. Hotel occupancy in 2024 is expected to reach 62.8%, which represents a 2.1% decrease from 2023. Similarly, Average Daily Rate (ADR) is projected to drop by 7.7% to $224.72, while Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is forecasted to decrease by 9.7% to $141.23.

The softer-than-expected performance in 2024 is largely attributed to a weaker convention calendar at Moscone Center, with fewer large-scale events planned for the year. In 2024, the convention center is scheduled to host 25 events, generating 413,000 room nights, compared to 34 events in 2023, which accounted for 618,962 room nights. This reduction in convention activity is a key factor in the overall dip in hotel demand.

Brett Allor, Vice President of Market Strategy & Research at San Francisco Travel, noted the impact of fewer conventions and reduced domestic travel. “Going into 2024, we knew this would be a challenging year due to a lighter convention schedule at Moscone Center. We did not anticipate that domestic leisure travel would continue the decline experienced since Q2 of 2023. The trend of U.S. residents vacationing abroad due to the strength of the dollar has had a greater impact on lodging than expected,” he said.

Despite these challenges, San Francisco Travel remains optimistic about the city’s ability to weather the downturn, citing strong partnerships within the local tourism and hospitality industries.

2025: A Brighter Outlook with Stronger Convention Activity

While 2024 presents challenges, 2025 is expected to be a stronger year for San Francisco’s tourism industry, driven by an improved convention calendar and a rebound in international leisure travel. According to the forecast, visitor volume is projected to reach 23.9 million in 2025, with visitor spending anticipated to exceed $10 billion.

Moscone Center is expected to play a pivotal role in the city’s tourism recovery in 2025, hosting 29 events that will generate over 590,000 room nights—a 30% increase compared to 2024. The robust event calendar is expected to drive hotel occupancy up to 64.1%, while ADR is forecasted to rise by 3.7% to $232.99, and RevPAR is projected to grow by 5.8% to $149.43.

Convention-related events are seen as a key economic driver for the city. “We are on the right track next year with the return of larger rotational events at Moscone Center. These will boost our visitor economy and drive more business to our restaurants, cultural institutions, and local businesses,” said Anna Marie Presutti, President and CEO of San Francisco Travel.

Boost from Major Events

In addition to a stronger convention calendar, major sports and entertainment events scheduled for 2025 and 2026 are expected to further enhance San Francisco’s tourism growth. The city will host high-profile events such as the NBA All-Star Game in February 2025, which will attract sports fans from across the globe. Additionally, San Francisco will welcome a new WNBA franchise, adding to its appeal as a destination for sports enthusiasts.

The importance of these events in boosting tourism was also highlighted by San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who praised the city’s ability to host world-class events. “As we continue our comeback, we are seeing more positive momentum with an increase in conventions next year, including the incredible news that Dreamforce is staying right where it belongs – here in San Francisco,” said Breed. “Next year we will have the NBA All-Star Game, a new WNBA franchise, and other major events that are going to bring more people and excitement here. Our goal is to keep making San Francisco, including our Downtown, an exciting, beautiful, welcoming, and safe city that welcomes visitors back again and again.”

Collaboration and Future Outlook

While 2024 may be a challenging year, both San Francisco Travel and the Hotel Council of San Francisco are focused on working together to maintain momentum and ensure the city’s long-term success. “We have faced unprecedented challenges as a community in 2024, and the metrics indicate that. However, we have been working together to put our community first, and by doing so, we have made some progress,” said Alex Bastian, President and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco. “Next year appears to have a better outlook, and it will give us opportunities to shine bright on the world stage.”

The 2025 visitor forecast also reflects growing confidence in San Francisco’s ability to bounce back from recent challenges. With continued collaboration among tourism industry leaders, the city is poised for sustained growth in both visitor arrivals and spending, particularly as international leisure travel begins to recover and conventions return in greater numbers.

Conclusion: A Path to Recovery

San Francisco’s tourism industry, while facing challenges in 2024, has a brighter future ahead in 2025. With a more robust convention calendar, major sports events, and an anticipated recovery in international travel, the city is well-positioned for growth. As industry leaders continue to work together, San Francisco Travel and its partners remain committed to making San Francisco a top destination for both business and leisure travelers.