The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a major climate warning for October 2026 to February 2027, forecasting an exceptionally powerful El Niño that could affect travel and tourism across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia, Australia and India. Published on 8 October 2026, the latest assessment predicts record-breaking warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, increasing the likelihood of floods, droughts, heatwaves and changes in seasonal rainfall. The developing conditions could affect safari holidays, coastal tourism, mountain trekking, marine wildlife experiences and regional transport networks, prompting tourism authorities and businesses to prepare for possible weather-related disruption.

The scale of the developing event has attracted international attention because ocean temperatures are rising rapidly, with the strongest conditions expected around December 2026. Forecasts indicate that El Niño could rank among the most powerful events recorded since at least 1950, while its influence on weather patterns may continue well into 2027. For the international travel industry, the implications extend beyond unusually hot or wet weather. Flooded roads can interrupt journeys to national parks. Drought can strain water supplies in island resorts. Wildfire smoke can reduce visibility and air quality. Marine heatwaves can threaten ecosystems that support diving, snorkelling and wildlife tourism.

However, these are potential consequences, not confirmed disruptions across every destination. The WMO’s seasonal forecast identifies broad climate trends, while national meteorological agencies provide the local forecasts needed to assess specific travel conditions.

WMO Forecasts Record Pacific Warming as El Niño Approaches a Potentially Historic December Peak

The latest WMO assessment reveals a striking increase in sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Niño 3.4 region, an important indicator used to measure El Niño conditions, recorded a temperature anomaly of 1.6°C above its reference average in June 2026. By August, the anomaly had increased to 2.5°C.

For October to December, the seasonal average anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7°C, potentially exceeding the previous benchmark of 2.6°C recorded during November 2015 to January 2016. The forecast draws on information from 13 national and international prediction centres. Their combined assessment indicates a near-100% likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027.

Key figures from the WMO’s October 2026 assessment

+3.7°C

Forecast Niño 3.4 anomaly, October–December 2026

~100%

Forecast likelihood of persistence through February 2027

13

Prediction centres contributing to the outlook

+0.5°C

Forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly

Source: World Meteorological Organization, 8 October 2026. The 3.7°C figure is a forecast ocean-temperature anomaly, not a projected rise in global air temperature.

El Niño develops when unusually warm tropical Pacific waters interact with atmospheric circulation. Changes in trade winds and the Pacific Walker Circulation shift areas of rising air, clouds and rainfall. These changes can influence weather thousands of kilometres away. The Indian Ocean Dipole is another important factor. Its positive phase is forecast to peak in October before weakening, while tropical Atlantic waters are also expected to remain warmer than average. The interaction of these climate systems makes the coming months particularly important for destination preparedness.

Global Rainfall Patterns Shift as Floods and Droughts Create Different Tourism Challenges

The WMO forecasts widespread above-average temperatures during October to December 2026, together with significant changes in global rainfall patterns. Wetter conditions are more likely across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central and East Asia, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, parts of North America and southeastern South America.

In contrast, below-normal rainfall is more likely across the Indian subcontinent, western Pacific, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America. These broad forecasts do not mean that every location within these regions will experience the same conditions.

Potential destination-level exposure based on established El Niño relationships and the October 2026 WMO outlook. The table does not indicate confirmed closures or nationwide emergencies. These risks are especially relevant to tourism businesses that depend on outdoor activities, natural attractions and transport infrastructure. The following destinations illustrate how the developing climate event could influence travel planning through the end of 2026 and into 2027.

Kenya’s Famous Safari Destinations Face Growing Flood Risks as Heavy Short Rains Approach

Kenya’s wildlife tourism industry faces an important weather challenge as the October-to-December short-rains season coincides with a strengthening El Niño. The Greater Horn of Africa is among the regions where the WMO expects above-normal rainfall, potentially increasing flood risks in vulnerable areas. Kenya’s national meteorological service has also issued its October-to-December 2026 seasonal forecast, providing a basis for local planning.

For visitors exploring the Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Samburu, intense rainfall can turn unpaved tracks into difficult driving routes. Safari vehicles may encounter waterlogged terrain, swollen streams and delayed transfers between lodges and national parks. Heavy rain can also change wildlife-viewing conditions. Green vegetation provides fresh grazing, but animals may spread across larger areas rather than gathering around familiar water sources.

The Tana River basin and other flood-prone areas require attention when prolonged rainfall develops. Flooding may damage roads, interrupt essential services and create public-health concerns, including increased exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. These conditions could place additional pressure on safari operators, transport providers and accommodation businesses. However, wetter weather does not automatically mean safari tourism will stop. Conditions vary between parks and individual routes. Operators can reduce disruption by checking official weather bulletins, maintaining alternative road arrangements and allowing greater flexibility in visitor schedules.

Somalia’s Juba and Shabelle River Basins Could Face Serious Flooding and Transport Difficulties

Somalia is another country exposed to the Greater Horn of Africa’s wetter seasonal outlook. The Juba and Shabelle river systems are especially sensitive to rainfall across their wider catchments, including precipitation that falls beyond Somalia’s borders. When upstream river levels rise, low-lying communities and transport corridors can experience flooding even where local rainfall is less intense.

For travel and tourism, the most immediate concern is the reliability of regional transport infrastructure. Floodwater can damage roads, isolate settlements and interrupt journeys between urban centres and rural destinations. Unpaved routes and remote airstrips may also become difficult to use during severe weather, although no specific closure can be inferred from the WMO’s seasonal forecast.

Somalia’s limited leisure tourism market means these conditions are particularly relevant to essential travel, business movements and humanitarian logistics. Flood preparedness remains important for organisations operating across vulnerable river basins. Travellers must also consider security risks independently of weather conditions. The developing El Niño does not alter existing security advisories or establish that particular transport routes are safe.

Ethiopia’s Mountain Trails and Cultural Tourism Routes Could Face Rainfall-Related Challenges

Ethiopia’s varied geography creates different weather exposures across its tourism regions. Southern and southeastern areas may experience wetter conditions under the broader Horn of Africa outlook, while mountainous landscapes remain vulnerable to erosion, swollen rivers and localised landslides during intense rainfall. Remote cultural journeys towards the Omo Valley depend on roads that can become difficult to navigate when river crossings flood or unpaved sections deteriorate. Such conditions may delay guided expeditions, accommodation transfers and the delivery of essential supplies to isolated communities.

Mountain tourism requires separate attention. The Simien Mountains and Bale Mountains attract visitors interested in trekking, wildlife and dramatic highland scenery. Rain, mist and slippery trails can affect outdoor activities, although the WMO’s regional outlook does not establish that these specific destinations will experience above-normal rainfall. Ethiopia’s historic northern destinations, including Lalibela and Gondar, may also require careful transport planning during adverse weather. Domestic air connections can sometimes provide alternatives to lengthy road journeys, subject to operating conditions and prevailing travel advisories.

Peru’s Beaches, Mountain Roads and Machu Picchu Tourism Face a Complex El Niño Outlook

Peru is closely associated with El Niño because changes in tropical Pacific temperatures can strongly influence conditions along parts of its coastline. During certain events, unusually warm coastal waters encourage heavy rainfall in northern Peru, increasing the likelihood of flooding, river overflow and destructive mudslides known as huaicos. Tourism destinations such as Máncora, Piura and Tumbes are particularly important for coastal travel. Severe rainfall can interrupt highway access, affect beach resorts and place pressure on drainage systems. Sections of the Pan-American Highway may become vulnerable when flooding damages roads or surrounding slopes.

The situation requires careful geographical distinction. The WMO’s latest seasonal outlook also identifies a broad dry signal across northwestern South America. Therefore, the global forecast does not justify predicting widespread flooding throughout Peru. Coastal conditions depend on local ocean temperatures, regional rainfall patterns and national meteorological assessments.

Mountain tourism presents another set of challenges. Cusco, the Sacred Valley and Machu Picchu attract visitors travelling by rail, road and hiking trails. Heavy rainfall can occasionally cause landslides and route restrictions, particularly in steep terrain. Travellers combining Lima, Cusco and Machu Picchu may benefit from additional itinerary flexibility, particularly during the local wet season. Rail operations, trekking access and park restrictions should be checked through the relevant authorities.

Ecuador’s Coastal Tourism and Galápagos Wildlife Experiences Face Changing Ocean Conditions

Ecuador combines Pacific beaches, Andean mountains, Amazonian landscapes and the internationally recognised Galápagos Islands. This geographical diversity means that El Niño can influence tourism in different ways across the country. Warm ocean conditions can increase the risk of heavy coastal rainfall during susceptible periods, while steep terrain creates additional exposure to landslides and road damage.

Ecuador’s national meteorological service, INAMHI, has issued a warning covering 9–11 October 2026 for moderate to heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and strong winds in parts of the country. The warning identifies potential road impacts and river-level increases across several coastal and western mountain areas. This is a short-term weather warning, not evidence that the entire country faces the same conditions throughout the El Niño event.

The Galápagos Islands face a different environmental concern. Marine iguanas, Galápagos penguins, sea lions and other wildlife depend on ecosystems influenced by ocean temperatures and nutrient availability. During strong warming episodes, reduced upwelling can affect marine food supplies. These changes may influence animal feeding patterns and ecological conditions relevant to diving and wildlife excursions.

Indonesia’s Bali, Lombok and Kalimantan Face Potential Drought, Wildfire and Haze Exposure

Indonesia lies within the western Pacific region, where strong El Niño events are frequently associated with suppressed rainfall and prolonged dry periods. The WMO’s October-to-December outlook identifies a broad dry signal across the western Pacific, although rainfall patterns can vary substantially between Indonesian islands.

The main concern is the combination of reduced rainfall, dry vegetation and fire-sensitive landscapes. Peatlands in Sumatra and Kalimantan can become highly vulnerable when water levels fall, especially where human activity provides ignition sources. Large fires can generate smoke that affects air quality across parts of Indonesia and neighbouring countries. Severe haze may reduce visibility, disrupt outdoor activities and create operational difficulties for regional transport.

For tourism destinations such as Bali, Lombok and the Gili Islands, extended dry conditions may also increase pressure on water supplies. Hotels, resorts and restaurants depend on reliable water availability for daily operations, sanitation and guest services. Adventure tourism faces additional considerations. Popular mountain destinations, including Mount Rinjani and Mount Bromo, can be exposed to vegetation fires during dry periods. Access restrictions may become necessary if local authorities identify unsafe conditions.

However, the WMO forecast does not confirm current fire outbreaks, airport shutdowns or resort water shortages. Visitors should monitor official Indonesian weather, disaster-management and air-quality information before arranging outdoor activities.

Australia Faces Rising Heat Exposure as Latest Forecast Reveals Major Regional Rainfall Differences

Australia’s tourism industry is preparing for a warmer period as the strong El Niño develops. However, the latest national forecasts show a more complicated rainfall picture than a simple nationwide drought scenario. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s updated outlook, issued on 8 October 2026, indicates that daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to remain above average across Australia during November to January. Rainfall is more likely to be above average across parts of western, central and eastern Australia, while below-average conditions are favoured in sections of the north and southeast.

The Bureau’s 1 October assessment provides further detail.

• Above-average rainfall is favoured across much of western and central Australia.
• Below-average rainfall is more likely across much of southern and eastern Victoria, Tasmania, Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Northern Territory’s Top End.
• Daytime temperatures have a 60% to greater than 80% chance of being above average across much of the country.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across almost all Australia.
• Some regions have more than an 80% chance of unusually warm nights.

These variations matter for tourism destinations ranging from Queensland’s tropical coast to the national parks of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Hot, dry and windy conditions can increase bushfire danger, potentially affecting walking trails, camping areas and scenic roads. Yet heavy rainfall remains possible in other regions, creating separate flood and storm risks.

The Great Barrier Reef also requires attention because unusually warm marine conditions can contribute to coral bleaching. The Bureau reports that sea temperatures around parts of Australia’s west, south and southeast were up to 2–3°C above average during the week ending 4 October. Tourism businesses must therefore plan for regional conditions rather than assume that every Australian destination will experience the same El Niño impacts.

India’s Tourism Industry Faces Water Stress and Uneven Rainfall After a Weak Southwest Monsoon

India enters the final months of 2026 following a below-average southwest monsoon, adding importance to the WMO’s forecast of drier-than-normal conditions across the Indian subcontinent. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical climate update, India’s June-to-September 2026 rainfall reached approximately 87% of its long-term average, the lowest seasonal total since 2015. The Bureau identified El Niño as a likely contributor to the rainfall deficit.

Earlier in the year, the India Meteorological Department had forecast national monsoon rainfall at approximately 92% of the long-period average, with a model error of five percentage points. The actual shortfall raises concerns about water availability in locations already facing rainfall deficits. Northern India’s winter tourism season introduces additional considerations. Delhi, Agra, Jaipur, Lucknow and Chandigarh can experience poor air quality and reduced visibility during autumn and winter.

However, smog is not caused by El Niño alone. Local emissions, agricultural burning, atmospheric conditions and seasonal fog all influence visibility and pollution. In the Himalayan region, trekking and road conditions depend on local precipitation, terrain and weather systems. Reduced rainfall in one region does not eliminate the possibility of heavy snowfall or sudden storms elsewhere.

Global Heat, Marine Ecosystems and Water Shortages Could Increase Tourism Operating Costs

Beyond the eight highlighted countries, the developing El Niño may affect tourism through higher temperatures, water scarcity and environmental pressure. The WMO reports that August 2026 was the hottest August on record according to major international climate-monitoring agencies. Global sea-surface temperatures also reached an observed record during the month.

El Niño does not create new heat. Instead, it changes how heat stored in the ocean interacts with the atmosphere. Combined with the long-term warming trend, a strong event can contribute to unusually high global temperatures. Outdoor tourism businesses may need to adjust activity schedules to reduce heat exposure. National parks and adventure operators may also face additional responsibilities when temperatures become dangerous.

Marine tourism is especially sensitive to sustained ocean warming. Coral reefs, fisheries and coastal ecosystems support diving, snorkelling, recreational boating and nature-based visitor experiences. Environmental stress can therefore affect both biodiversity and tourism-dependent communities. Agricultural disruption is another indirect concern. Floods and droughts can affect food production, supply chains and the availability of local products used by hotels and restaurants.

What International Travellers and Tourism Businesses Should Monitor Through February 2027

With El Niño expected to persist through at least February 2027, tourism businesses have a clear reason to strengthen weather preparedness. The WMO is coordinating with national meteorological and hydrological services, regional climate outlook forums and humanitarian organisations to improve early warnings and risk management.

For travellers and industry operators, several practical considerations are particularly important:

1. Monitor official forecasts: Use national meteorological and disaster-management authorities for destination-specific warnings.
2. Check transport conditions: Confirm road, rail and ferry operations before travelling through flood-prone or remote areas.
3. Allow flexible itineraries: Build additional time into journeys involving mountain routes, safari tracks and island connections.
4. Review booking conditions: Understand cancellation, amendment and insurance provisions before committing to weather-sensitive activities.
5. Protect visitor health: Consider heat exposure, air quality, drinking-water safety and locally relevant mosquito-borne disease risks.
6. Follow conservation guidance: Check official marine and national park information before wildlife excursions.

A strong seasonal climate signal does not mean that every journey will be disrupted. Weather impacts can vary significantly between neighbouring destinations and from one week to another.

El Niño’s Potentially Historic Strength Places Tourism Preparedness at the Centre of 2027 Travel Planning

The latest WMO assessment marks an important development for international tourism because the projected Pacific warming is exceptional in the observational record. With the Niño 3.4 anomaly forecast to average approximately 3.7°C during October to December 2026 and near-certainty that El Niño will persist through February 2027, governments and tourism businesses face an extended period of heightened climate uncertainty.

Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia must monitor rainfall and flood exposure. Peru and Ecuador require careful assessment of coastal weather, mountain transport and marine ecosystems. Indonesia faces potential dry-season pressures, while Australia must prepare for regionally different combinations of heat, rainfall and fire danger. India faces additional challenges following its weak southwest monsoon.

The wider travel industry may also experience indirect effects through water availability, public health, ecosystem changes and infrastructure reliability. Nevertheless, the WMO’s forecast is not a declaration that these destinations are unsafe or that tourism disruption is inevitable. As international travel continues into the final months of 2026 and the opening months of 2027, reliable meteorological information, destination-specific planning and effective emergency preparedness will be essential to maintaining tourism operations and protecting visitors.