New York Joins Washington and Others to Face Tourism Pressure as Canadian Road Trips to US Stay 31.1% Below 2024

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New York joins Washington and others to face tourism pressure as Canadian road trips to US stay 31.1% below 2024, showing that cross-border travel is improving without fully recovering. In September 2026, 1,889,652 Canadians residents travelled back to the US by cars or flights, representing a 6.8% increase from the previous year. However, vehicle travel was still 31.1% below what was recorded in September 2024, and air travel was 18.7% less. The border communities, hotels and attractions, and retail are still exposed in New York, Washington and Michigan due to Canadians visiting the border. The rebound is real, but lost traffic and spending are still very high in key northern U.S. tourism gateways.

Canadian Travel Is Recovering, but the 2024 Gap Remains Wide

September marked the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year growth in combined Canadian automobile and air return trips from the United States.

Automobile trips increased 5.6% compared with September 2025, while air return trips rose 11.6%. That is positive momentum, but the longer comparison tells a different story.

The market is therefore improving from the unusually weak 2025 base without yet recovering the demand lost since 2024.

For travellers, that may create stronger destination promotions and competitive offers. For hotels, restaurants and attractions, however, higher traffic does not automatically mean lost Canadian business has returned.

New York’s Tourism Growth Masks a Major Canadian Visitor Loss

New York illustrates why overall visitor numbers can hide pressure inside individual markets.

Official state figures show that total visitation increased 1.1% to 321 million visitors in 2025, yet Canadian visitation fell more than 26% and Canadian visitor spending dropped 28% from 2024. International visitation overall declined 6%.

That matters because Canada has traditionally been New York’s largest international inbound market.

Canadian road travellers also support more than New York City. They feed demand across:

• Niagara Falls and Buffalo
• the Thousand Islands
• the North Country
• Adirondack communities
• shopping and entertainment centres near the border
• onward road-trip destinations across the state

New York responded with its NY LOVES CANADA campaign, offering Canadian visitors savings on accommodation, attractions, dining and other experiences.

For travellers, these promotions can reduce the cost of a US break. For New York, the bigger test is whether discounts encourage Canadians to stay overnight, extend trips and spend more locally.

Washington Shows Why Visitor Value Matters More Than Volume

Washington State presents an even stronger example of why tourism recovery cannot be measured by visitor numbers alone.

The state recorded close to 111 million visits in 2025, almost unchanged from the previous year, while visitor expenditure increased 0.9% to US$25.3 billion.

Yet beneath those stable totals:

International visitors spent roughly five times more per trip than domestic visitors on those averages.

This creates an important tourism lesson: a destination can remain busy while losing some of its most valuable travellers.

Washington’s proximity to British Columbia means a strong Canadian comeback could have an outsized effect on hotels, restaurants, attractions and retail businesses—especially if returning travellers stay overnight rather than make short day trips.

Buffalo, Detroit, Port Huron and Blaine Show Where Pressure Is Concentrated

US Bureau of Transportation Statistics figures show that northern-border personal vehicle entries fell 18.8% in 2025, from 22.56 million in 2024 to 18.33 million.

Several major gateways recorded substantial declines.

These figures explain why New York, Michigan and Washington remain particularly exposed to changes in Canadian travel behaviour.

However, travellers should read them carefully. Border crossings are not identical to tourist arrivals. They include workers, people visiting relatives and other non-leisure journeys. A vehicle crossing also does not reveal where the traveller ultimately spends money.

The numbers are best viewed as evidence of movement through major gateways rather than a precise count of tourists.

The Bigger Story Is That Canadians Changed Where They Travelled

The 2026 recovery follows a dramatic shift in 2025.

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian residents made 23.1 million visits to the United States in 2025, down 23.5% from 2024 and 26.7% below 2019.

Spending during US visits fell 15.1% to C$18.8 billion.

At the same time, Canadian residents made 14.3 million overseas visits, while overseas spending reached C$31.3 billion.

That means US destinations are not simply trying to recover travellers who temporarily stayed home. They are competing against destinations elsewhere that gained Canadian demand during the downturn.

Leisure travel was particularly important. Canadian leisure visits to the United States fell 21.5% in 2025, while leisure-related spending declined by C$2.2 billion to C$12.1 billion.

That matters because discretionary leisure travellers are typically the visitors most likely to pay for accommodation, restaurants, attractions, shopping and entertainment.

Canada-US Tensions Matter, but They Are Not the Whole Story

Bank of Canada researchers reported that Canadians made nearly 10 million fewer trips to the United States in 2025 than in 2024, including 8.4 million fewer land trips and 1.2 million fewer air trips.

The research identified a shift toward Canadian destinations during trade tensions and stronger “Buy Canadian” sentiment.

But political sentiment should not be treated as the sole explanation.

Travel decisions can also be influenced by:

• exchange rates
• accommodation prices
• fuel and driving costs
• household budgets
• destination alternatives
• travel purpose
• airfare
• perceived value

The strongest interpretation is that political and economic tensions became one important influence inside a broader traveller decision.

NEXUS Changes Mean the Latest Numbers Need Careful Reading

Statistics Canada began integrating more travellers processed through NEXUS Highway systems into its leading international-arrivals indicator in 2026.

The agency advises caution when comparing recent data with earlier periods because the expanded NEXUS coverage can affect historical comparability.

This does not erase September’s improvement.

It means the safest conclusion is more precise: Canadian travel to the United States is rising year on year, but road travel remains far below its 2024 level, and some historical comparisons now require additional caution.

What Canadian Travellers Should Check Before a US Road Trip

The current market could create useful opportunities for travellers, but value should be judged across the whole trip.

Travellers should compare the complete cost and experience, not one discount or headline fare.

The Real Recovery Test Is Spending, Not Simply More Cars

The latest data provide genuine encouragement. Canadian road trips are rising compared with 2025, but September automobile travel remained 31.1% below September 2024.

New York has lost substantial Canadian visitation and spending. Washington shows how total visitor numbers can remain stable while valuable international demand weakens. Michigan remains exposed through some of the busiest Canada-US road gateways.

The next stage of recovery will therefore depend on more than border traffic.

What matters is whether Canadian travellers return for overnight stays, leisure trips, attractions, restaurants, shopping and longer itineraries.

More cars crossing the border may signal movement. More Canadian travellers staying and spending will signal a genuine US tourism recovery.

In conclusion, New York joins Washington and others to face tourism pressure as Canadian road trips to US stay 31.1% below 2024 because the recovery remains incomplete despite stronger September traffic. Year-on-year gains show that Canadian travel is rebuilding from the sharp 2025 decline, but road and air volumes remain well below 2024 levels. New York, Washington and Michigan therefore still face pressure across border communities, hotels, attractions, retail and other visitor-dependent businesses. A lasting recovery will require more than rising crossings. Canadian travellers must return in greater numbers, stay longer and restore the spending lost during the dramatic cross-border travel downturn.