United States Travel Data Reveals Sharp Decline in Tourist Arrivals Across Key Regions Raising Industry Concerns and Heightened Alerts

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Canadian travel to the United States has suffered a dramatic drop over the past year, far exceeding earlier estimates. While official Statistics Canada figures suggested a 25% decline in Canadians returning from the U.S. in 2025, new Travel Data from researchers at the University of Toronto indicates that the actual year-over-year decrease in cross-border trips is closer to 42%. The data, which tracked mobile device activity from April 1, 2025, through March 31, 2026, shows that the drop affects not only leisure travel but also business and trade visits.

Political tensions between the two countries are a major factor. Repeated statements from U.S. leadership, including the controversial “51st state” remarks regarding Canada, combined with tariffs on Canadian goods, have driven public opposition. Many Canadians have responded by redirecting travel spending to other destinations, such as the Caribbean, Mexico, and South America, or opting for domestic travel within Canada.

The impact of this shift is significant. In warm-weather destinations like Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Canadian visits dropped by as much as 65%, while duty-free stores near the border report sales declines of up to 80% compared with pre-2019 levels. The effects are not limited to leisure travel. Business travel has also been affected, with reductions reported in high-tech, industrial, and financial hubs across the United States.

Reasons Behind the Decline

Several factors explain why Canadians are traveling less to the U.S.:

• Political and Policy Tensions: Aggressive rhetoric and controversial statements about Canada’s status have made U.S. travel less appealing.
• Tariffs on Canadian Goods: These have fueled widespread discontent, prompting a boycott of American destinations.
• Social Campaigns: Movements such as #ElbowsUp have encouraged Canadians to explore alternatives outside the U.S.
• Border and Visa Challenges: Reports of stricter inspections, delays, and longer visa processing times have created barriers for travelers.

Taken together, these factors have led to a significant and sustained decline in cross-border trips. Travel behavior is shifting as Canadians reassess the U.S. as a safe, welcoming, and economically favorable destination.

Effects on U.S. Destinations

The decline in Canadian travel has had a measurable impact on U.S. states and cities that historically rely on Canadian visitors. Travel Data indicates reductions across leisure, business, and industrial hubs.

Florida continues to attract seasonal Canadian “snowbirds,” but overall visits are down. In Myrtle Beach, retail, hotels, and entertainment services have seen dramatic drops in Canadian spending. Las Vegas has also felt the pinch, as Canadian visitors traditionally make up a sizeable portion of international traffic.

Changing Travel Patterns

While some Canadians continue to visit the U.S., the patterns have shifted significantly.

• Canadians are increasingly choosing alternative destinations such as the Caribbean, Mexico, and South America.
• Shorter trips have become common, with travelers reducing the length of their stays.
• Visits to traditional U.S. hotspots like Florida and Las Vegas are more selective, with spending reduced.
• Business travel has declined, particularly in technology, finance, and industrial sectors.

This shift shows a recalibration of North American travel. Canadians are factoring political climate, economic pressures, and border experiences into their travel decisions.

Economic Consequences for the United States

The drop in Canadian travel carries heavy economic consequences.

• The U.S. Travel Association initially estimated that a 10% decline in Canadian tourism would cost the American economy around $2.1 billion USD.
• With the observed 42% drop, the loss could reach $8.4 billion USD.
• Border duty-free stores are reporting sales declines of up to 80%, and resorts in affected areas see sharply lower occupancy rates.

Airlines have responded by adjusting flight schedules, routes, and pricing. Airports in Florida, California, and New York are facing reduced traffic, while some businesses are exploring alternative markets to make up for lost Canadian visitors.

City Highlights: How Canadians are Spending Less

Despite the general decline, certain cities continue to see Canadian visitation, albeit reduced.

Las Vegas, Nevada: Canadian visits fell 17% in 2025, while Mexico’s visitor numbers increased slightly. Casinos and hotels are adjusting occupancy and revenue expectations accordingly.

Florida: Snowbirds continue to visit, but the total numbers are smaller. Theme parks, hotels, and resorts have seen lower bookings and reduced spending.

Oregon: Portland International Airport recorded a 21% decrease in international arrivals, including 32% fewer Canadians.

Key Impacts Across Major Cities

• Miami & Orlando: Hotel bookings down 50%, impacting resorts and entertainment revenue.
• Las Vegas: Lower Canadian visitation affects casino occupancy.
• Myrtle Beach: Retail and service sectors report a 65% decline in Canadian patrons.
• Portland: Airlines and border businesses report reduced revenue.
• Los Angeles & New York: Cultural attractions and events have fewer Canadian participants.

Broader Implications

The Canadian travel boycott extends beyond tourism.

• Business and Trade Travel: Reduced visits to financial and industrial hubs affect networking, meetings, and commerce.
• Airline Operations: Routes are being restructured, and fares are recalibrated to respond to lower demand.
• Alternative Markets: States are increasingly targeting Latin American and European tourists to offset the decline.
• Travel Data Analytics: Continuous monitoring allows stakeholders to predict trends and respond quickly.

The boycott demonstrates how political and economic factors can significantly influence travel behavior.

Looking Ahead

The decline in Canadian travel to the United States is reshaping tourism and business planning. Travel Data confirms a 42% drop, particularly affecting Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, and other key states.

Political tensions, tariffs, and public boycotts are driving these changes. Alternative destinations, including Mexico and the Caribbean, are gaining popularity among Canadians. Airlines, hotels, and border businesses are forced to adapt to declining demand, while data-driven strategies become increasingly important.

The Canada-U.S. travel landscape has changed fundamentally. Stakeholders must account for political sentiment, economic pressures, and consumer behavior to plan and market effectively. Travel Data will remain a vital tool for navigating these evolving trends.