New York City Alongside San Francisco, Seattle and More Reveal Uneven US Tourism as Visitor Trends Diverge in 2026

Image Credit: NYC Tourism

New York City Alongside San Francisco, Seattle and More Reveal Uneven US Tourism as Visitor Trends Diverge in 2026 because official tourism data show that major destinations are experiencing different patterns of visitor demand. New York City is facing weaker international arrivals, while its wider visitor economy remains comparatively resilient. San Francisco is forecasting 24.2 million visitors and $9.9 billion in visitor spending for 2026, indicating continued growth. Seattle, meanwhile, recorded 39.6 million visitors in 2025, down 0.9%, but its 2026 outlook points towards stronger international visitation. These contrasting figures reveal uneven US tourism in 2026, with visitor trends diverging because of international travel conditions, weather disruption, domestic demand and destination-specific economic factors.

New York’s First-Quarter Tourism Performance Shows Clear Signs of Pressure

New York City entered 2026 with relatively resilient tourism, but conditions deteriorated towards the end of the first quarter. The city’s Office of the Comptroller reported that tourism had been strong through mid-February before the 22 February blizzard disrupted activity. By March and early April, both hotel occupancy and Broadway attendance were below year-earlier levels.

The March weakness was linked by the Comptroller to a combination of weather disruptions, travel-related concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Broadway attendance and revenue were each nearly 5% and 8% below the comparable period a year earlier. The hotel market also remained affected by the disruption caused by the late-February storm.

This provides the strongest official evidence of Q1 tourism pressure among the major US destinations examined here.

International Arrivals Are the Main Weak Point for New York

The international market is where New York has faced the most visible weakness.

The NYC Comptroller reported that international arrivals through New York City and Newark were down 6.5% during the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, compared with a 3.8% national decline. The measure covers overseas arrivals of non-US citizens, excluding Canada and Mexico, through JFK and Newark. March and April figures were preliminary at the time of the report.

The data need careful interpretation because this is a fiscal-year measure, not a pure January–March calendar-quarter total.

Nevertheless, the evidence indicates that New York’s international visitor market was already under pressure during the first quarter.

The Comptroller also reported that a decline in international arrivals through New York and New Jersey ports of entry explained part of the city’s tourism weakness during the first months of 2026.

Weather Was a Significant Short-Term Disruption for New York

The February blizzard was an immediate factor affecting the tourism environment.

New York’s official April economic report said tourism, which had been strong through mid-February, weakened after the 22 February blizzard and had barely recovered by March and early April. Hotel occupancy and Broadway attendance were both below year-earlier benchmarks.

This matters because the decline cannot simply be attributed to weaker international demand.

Weather directly affected travel conditions and visitor activity, while international travel concerns and geopolitical uncertainty added another layer of pressure.

The February experience also demonstrates why a single quarterly tourism figure can be misleading. A major weather event can temporarily reduce hotel stays, entertainment attendance and visitor activity without necessarily creating a permanent deterioration in the destination’s tourism economy.

New York’s Tourism Economy Has Not Collapsed

Despite weaker international arrivals, the available official evidence does not support describing New York’s tourism economy as being in collapse.

In January, hotel occupancy averaged about 73%, around 2–3 percentage points higher than a year earlier, while revenue per available room was estimated to have increased 6%.

The picture changed after the February storm, but accommodation revenues remained relatively strong because higher room rates partly offset softer demand.

For July 2025 through April 2026, New York City’s hotel occupancy averaged 83.1%, less than one percentage point below the previous year. Average daily rates and RevPAR were approximately 4% higher year on year.

The evidence therefore points towards international tourism pressure and uneven visitor demand, rather than an outright collapse in the city’s wider tourism economy.

Broadway Also Shows the Difference Between Visitor Volume and Tourism Value

Broadway provides another useful measure of New York’s tourism performance.

During March and early April, Broadway attendance was nearly 5% lower than the previous year, while revenue was nearly 8% lower.

Yet the longer-term comparison remains more complicated.

The Comptroller later reported that Broadway year-to-date revenue and attendance were below 2025 levels but remained substantially above 2024 levels. By May, revenue was nearly 6% lower than the previous year, while attendance was slightly down. However, revenue remained 19% above 2024, and attendance was 17% higher than 2024.

This demonstrates why tourism performance should be assessed across several years.

A decline from an exceptionally strong 2025 benchmark does not necessarily mean that the sector has returned to weak post-pandemic levels.

San Francisco Does Not Currently Support a Q1 Decline Narrative

San Francisco requires a different interpretation.

The official San Francisco Travel Association, which is the destination marketing organisation for the City and County of San Francisco, released its 2026 forecast in May. It projects 24.2 million visitors for the year and $9.9 billion in visitor spending.

The organisation also expects international overnight visitation to reach 2.3 million in 2026, compared with 2.2 million in 2025. International visitor spending is projected to increase 5.8% to $5.2 billion.

That means San Francisco cannot accurately be placed in the same “tourism decline” category as New York based on the official information reviewed.

Instead, San Francisco is showing continued growth, although international travel to the United States remains exposed to broader geopolitical and economic factors.

San Francisco’s Wider Visitor Economy Is Forecast to Expand

San Francisco’s 2026 forecast provides several positive indicators.

The city’s recovery is being supported by conventions and major events. San Francisco Travel expects 38 Moscone Center events to generate approximately 674,000 room nights in 2026.

This creates a different tourism trajectory from New York’s first-quarter weakness.

Convention Travel Is Helping San Francisco Offset International Headwinds

San Francisco’s official tourism organisation says geopolitical and economic factors continue to create headwinds for international travel to the United States.

Yet the city expects its overall tourism economy to grow.

The convention sector is a major factor. In 2025, Moscone Center hosted 34 events generating 635,000 room nights, compared with 25 events and 399,000 room nights in 2024. That represented a 59% increase in room nights. In 2026, the organisation expects another increase.

This is important for understanding tourism resilience.

A destination does not depend solely on leisure tourists. Business travellers, conference delegates, exhibitors and event attendees can support hotels, restaurants, retail businesses and attractions.

San Francisco’s 2026 outlook therefore demonstrates how a strong convention calendar can offset weakness in individual visitor segments.

New York and San Francisco Tell Two Very Different Tourism Stories

The comparison becomes clearer when the available official evidence is placed side by side.

New York’s official 2026 outlook nevertheless remains positive. NYC Tourism + Conventions projects 66.3 million visitors for the full calendar year, including 53.4 million domestic and 12.9 million international visitors, representing a 2% increase from 2025.

That forecast reinforces the point that first-quarter weakness does not automatically determine the full-year outcome.

Why Are US Tourism Results So Uneven?

The official evidence points to several factors rather than one nationwide cause.

For New York, the documented pressures include:

• the February blizzard;
• weaker international arrivals;
• travel-related concerns;
• geopolitical uncertainty;
• softer March hotel demand;
• weaker Broadway attendance and revenue.

San Francisco faces broader international travel headwinds, but its convention calendar and major events are supporting visitor demand. Its official 2026 forecast expects both total visitor numbers and spending to increase.

This suggests that US tourism performance is being shaped by the mix of visitor markets and travel purposes, not simply by overall demand.

What Does This Mean for Travellers?

For travellers, the first-quarter data suggest that conditions vary substantially by destination.

New York remains a major international destination, but visitors should expect that weather and major events can affect hotel demand, attractions and travel schedules. The city also continues to attract large numbers of domestic and international visitors.

San Francisco’s outlook is different. Its 2026 forecast points towards higher visitor numbers and spending, supported partly by conventions and major events.

Travellers should therefore avoid making decisions based solely on claims that “US tourism is declining”.

The more accurate picture is that some markets are under pressure while others remain resilient or are growing.

Conclusion

New York Faces Tourism Pressure While San Francisco Holds Up in Uneven US Travel Market because first-quarter 2026 evidence shows a clear divergence between two major US destinations. New York experienced weaker tourism conditions in March after the February blizzard, while international arrivals through New York and Newark remained below the previous year during the first part of the fiscal year. However, San Francisco’s official 2026 forecast points towards growth, with 24.2 million visitors and $9.9 billion in visitor spending, alongside projected increases in international visitation and spending. The evidence therefore supports a story of uneven US tourism performance, driven by weather, international travel conditions, economic uncertainty and destination-specific demand rather than a universal tourism downturn.

Comment from Anup Keshan, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Travel And Tour World

“First-quarter 2026 data show why US tourism needs to be examined destination by destination rather than through a single national narrative. New York has faced genuine pressure, particularly from weaker international arrivals and the disruption caused by the February blizzard. Yet its hotel economy and full-year visitor outlook remain resilient. San Francisco presents an important contrast, with official forecasts pointing towards growth supported by international visitors, conventions and major events. For travellers, this distinction is valuable. A temporary fall in one market does not necessarily mean a destination’s tourism economy is declining. Understanding the underlying causes gives travellers and industry professionals a much clearer picture of the US travel market.”

Image Credit: NYC Tourism